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Managing for Climate Change in the Alpine Ski Sector.

Profile image of Daniel ScottDaniel Scott

2012

https://doi.org/10.1016/J.TOURMAN.2012.07.009
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12 pages

Abstract
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This paper examines the impact of climate change on the Alpine ski sector, highlighting its vulnerability and reliance on weather conditions for economic viability. It discusses various adaptive strategies implemented by ski resorts, such as advancements in snowmaking technology and diversification into all-season resorts, while also providing economic estimations of future losses due to climate change. The findings reveal a critical need for effective climate management strategies in the ski industry to mitigate substantial revenue losses and adapt to changing environmental conditions.

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Key takeaways
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  1. Climate change poses significant risks to individual ski areas, particularly those at lower elevations.
  2. Projected reductions in snow reliability could drop from 91% to 30% under various temperature scenarios.
  3. Snowmaking requirements will increase, especially in regions with lower elevation ski areas.
  4. By 2070-2099, only 30 ski areas may remain economically viable under high emissions scenarios.
  5. Ski resort closures will disproportionately affect southern US Northeast areas, intensifying local economic challenges.
Figures (12)
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attachec copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Provided for non-commercial research and education use. Not for reproduction, distribution or commercial use.
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attachec copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Provided for non-commercial research and education use. Not for reproduction, distribution or commercial use.
Fig. 1. Map of US Northeast ski areas. New York (n = 36): 1-Peek’n Peak, 2-Cockainge, Holiday Valley, Holimount, 3-Kissing Bridge, 4-Brantling, 5-Bristol, 6-Swain, 7-Dryhill, 8-Snowridge, Woods, 9-Song, 10-Four Seasons, Labrador, Toggenburg, 11-Greek Peak, 12-Whiteface, 13-Gore, 14-Oak, 15-Mccauley, Titus, 16-Royal, 17- Hickory, West, Willard, 18- Catamount, Cortina, Hunter, Sawkill, 19-Belleayre, Platekill, Whindam, 20- Mt. Peter, Stirling, 21-Bobcat, Holiday Mountain. Vermont (n = 18): 22-Jay Peak, 23-Smugglers Notch, 24-Bolton Valley, Stowe, 25- Cochran, 26-Madriver, 27-Middlebury, 28-Killington, Pico, 29-Sugarbush, 30-Okemo, 31-Ascutney, 32-Bromley, 33-Magic, Stratton, 34-Mt. Snow, 35-Burke, 36-Suicide Six. New Hamp- shire (n = 18): 37-Balsams, 38-Cannon, Loon, 39-Bretton, 40-Black, Wildcat, Whaleback, 41-Dartmouth, 42-Tenney, 43-Watterville, 44-Attiash, 45-Cranmore, 46-King Pine, 47-Sunapee, 48-Ragged, 49-Gunstock, 50-Pats Peak, 51-Crotched. Maine (n = 14): 52-Saddleback, Sugarloaf, 53-Black, Mt. Abram, Sunday River, 54-Shawnee, 55-Big Rock, 56-Eaton, 57-New Hermon, 58- Lost Valley, 59-Titcomb, 60-Big Squaw, 61-Camden, 62-Mt. Jefferson. Massachusetts (n = 12): 63-Berkshire, 64-Blandford, Otis, 65-Jiminy Peak, 66-Butternut, 67-Nashoba, 68-Pine Ridge, Wachusett, 69-Blue Hills, 70-Bousquet, 71-Bradford, 72-Ward. Connecticut (n = 5): 73-Sundown, 74-Mohawk, 75-Woodbury, 76-Southington, 77-Powder Ridge.
Fig. 1. Map of US Northeast ski areas. New York (n = 36): 1-Peek’n Peak, 2-Cockainge, Holiday Valley, Holimount, 3-Kissing Bridge, 4-Brantling, 5-Bristol, 6-Swain, 7-Dryhill, 8-Snowridge, Woods, 9-Song, 10-Four Seasons, Labrador, Toggenburg, 11-Greek Peak, 12-Whiteface, 13-Gore, 14-Oak, 15-Mccauley, Titus, 16-Royal, 17- Hickory, West, Willard, 18- Catamount, Cortina, Hunter, Sawkill, 19-Belleayre, Platekill, Whindam, 20- Mt. Peter, Stirling, 21-Bobcat, Holiday Mountain. Vermont (n = 18): 22-Jay Peak, 23-Smugglers Notch, 24-Bolton Valley, Stowe, 25- Cochran, 26-Madriver, 27-Middlebury, 28-Killington, Pico, 29-Sugarbush, 30-Okemo, 31-Ascutney, 32-Bromley, 33-Magic, Stratton, 34-Mt. Snow, 35-Burke, 36-Suicide Six. New Hamp- shire (n = 18): 37-Balsams, 38-Cannon, Loon, 39-Bretton, 40-Black, Wildcat, Whaleback, 41-Dartmouth, 42-Tenney, 43-Watterville, 44-Attiash, 45-Cranmore, 46-King Pine, 47-Sunapee, 48-Ragged, 49-Gunstock, 50-Pats Peak, 51-Crotched. Maine (n = 14): 52-Saddleback, Sugarloaf, 53-Black, Mt. Abram, Sunday River, 54-Shawnee, 55-Big Rock, 56-Eaton, 57-New Hermon, 58- Lost Valley, 59-Titcomb, 60-Big Squaw, 61-Camden, 62-Mt. Jefferson. Massachusetts (n = 12): 63-Berkshire, 64-Blandford, Otis, 65-Jiminy Peak, 66-Butternut, 67-Nashoba, 68-Pine Ridge, Wachusett, 69-Blue Hills, 70-Bousquet, 71-Bradford, 72-Ward. Connecticut (n = 5): 73-Sundown, 74-Mohawk, 75-Woodbury, 76-Southington, 77-Powder Ridge.
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). b 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi) n = number of ski areas in the state %A = percentage change. Projected change in ski season length (ability to maintain 100-days). Table 1
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). b 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi) n = number of ski areas in the state %A = percentage change. Projected change in ski season length (ability to maintain 100-days). Table 1
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi). Percent of ski areas with 100+ day season length and >75% probability of being operational during the Christmas-New Year holiday. Table 4
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi). Percent of ski areas with 100+ day season length and >75% probability of being operational during the Christmas-New Year holiday. Table 4
Projection of ski areas with at least 75% probability of being operational during the Christmas-New Year holiday. n = number of ski areas in the state. %A = percentage change. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi).
Projection of ski areas with at least 75% probability of being operational during the Christmas-New Year holiday. n = number of ski areas in the state. %A = percentage change. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi).
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi) n = number of ski areas in the state %A = percentage change. Projected change in snowmaking requirements. Table 3 Table 2
Note: Connecticut (CT) n = 5, Maine (ME) n = 14, Massachusetts (MA) n = 12, New Hampshire (NH) n = 18, New York (NY) n = 36, Vermont (VT) n = 18. * 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL- B1, HadCM3-B1, PCM1-B1). > 30 year average of three scenarios (GFDL-A1Fi, HadCM3-A1Fi, PCM1-A1Fi) n = number of ski areas in the state %A = percentage change. Projected change in snowmaking requirements. Table 3 Table 2
Fig. 2. Contraction of the US Northeast ski areas marketplace under the A1fi — high emissions scenario. J. Dawson, D. Scott / Tourism Management 35 (2013) 244-254
Fig. 2. Contraction of the US Northeast ski areas marketplace under the A1fi — high emissions scenario. J. Dawson, D. Scott / Tourism Management 35 (2013) 244-254
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Fig. 3. Contraction of the US Northeast ski area marketplace under the B1 — low emissions scenario. J. Dawson, D. Scott / Tourism Management 35 (2013) 244—254
Fig. 3. Contraction of the US Northeast ski area marketplace under the B1 — low emissions scenario. J. Dawson, D. Scott / Tourism Management 35 (2013) 244—254
Distance between large population centres and reliable ski areas (2050s). * According to modeled projections, Bobcat, NY (21 - Fig. 1) would be closest; however it is reportedly closed during the time of this study. > According to modeled projections, McCauley, NY (15 - Fig. 1) would be closest; however it is reportedly closed during the time of this study. Table 6
Distance between large population centres and reliable ski areas (2050s). * According to modeled projections, Bobcat, NY (21 - Fig. 1) would be closest; however it is reportedly closed during the time of this study. > According to modeled projections, McCauley, NY (15 - Fig. 1) would be closest; however it is reportedly closed during the time of this study. Table 6
Estimated economic impact of climate change on ski area supply. Table 5
Estimated economic impact of climate change on ski area supply. Table 5
skiers are not exposed to a skiing culture. Many smaller ski areas currently located in the highly vulnerable states Connecticut and Massachusetts act as ‘nursery hills’ to the larger ski resorts located further north. Currently, individuals from Boston and New York City are exposed to skiing and learn to ski at local resorts. If a skiing culture does not exist within a 500 km radius of these major centers it is possible that fewer individuals will take up the activity. This is evident through a simple spatial analog of skier participants. According to the NSAA (2006b) the total percentage of skiers residing in popular and mountainous ski regions is 64% versus participants from more southern US regions with fewer skiing opportunities, which contained just 31.3% of total skiing partici- pants. When examining which US states create the most skiers it is clear that mountainous regions with pre-existing ski cultures The irony in the projected contraction of ski area supply causing increased travel distances for skiers is the resulting increase in transportation emissions, which contributes further to climate change. Another concern associated with increased travel distances between major urban centers and viable ski areas is a possible overall loss of skier participation. It is unclear how the future demographic of skiers will develop if existing skiers are not willing to travel longer distances to ski or perhaps more importantly if new
skiers are not exposed to a skiing culture. Many smaller ski areas currently located in the highly vulnerable states Connecticut and Massachusetts act as ‘nursery hills’ to the larger ski resorts located further north. Currently, individuals from Boston and New York City are exposed to skiing and learn to ski at local resorts. If a skiing culture does not exist within a 500 km radius of these major centers it is possible that fewer individuals will take up the activity. This is evident through a simple spatial analog of skier participants. According to the NSAA (2006b) the total percentage of skiers residing in popular and mountainous ski regions is 64% versus participants from more southern US regions with fewer skiing opportunities, which contained just 31.3% of total skiing partici- pants. When examining which US states create the most skiers it is clear that mountainous regions with pre-existing ski cultures The irony in the projected contraction of ski area supply causing increased travel distances for skiers is the resulting increase in transportation emissions, which contributes further to climate change. Another concern associated with increased travel distances between major urban centers and viable ski areas is a possible overall loss of skier participation. It is unclear how the future demographic of skiers will develop if existing skiers are not willing to travel longer distances to ski or perhaps more importantly if new

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  31. NSAA. (2006b). 2005e06 National Ski Areas Association demographic survey. Lake- wood, Colorado: National Ski Areas Association.
  32. NSAA. (2007). 2006e07 Economic analysis of United States ski areas. Lakewood, Colorado: National Ski Areas Association.
  33. OECD. (2007). Climate change in the European Alps: Adapting winter tourism and natural hazards management. Paris: OECD, Accessed 19.12.11, available at: http://www. oecd.org/document/45/0,2340,en_2649_34361_37819437_1_1_1_1,00.html#.
  34. Pickering, C. M., Castley, J. G., & Burtt, M. (2010). Skiing less often in a warmer world: attitudes of tourists to climate change in an Australian ski resort. Geographical Research, 8(2), 137e147.
  35. Scott, D. (2005). Ski industry adaptation to climate change: hard, soft and policy strategies. In S. Gössling, & M. Hall (Eds.), Tourism and global environmental change (pp. 262e285). London, UK: Routledge.
  36. Scott, D., Dawson, J., & Jones, B. (2007). Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation-tourism sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Climate Change, 13, 577e596.
  37. Scott, D., Hall, C. M., & Gössling, S. (2012). Tourism and climate change: impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. London, UK: Routledge.
  38. Scott, D., & McBoyle, G. (2007). Climate change adaptation in the ski industry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12, 1411e1431.
  39. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., & Mills, B. (2003). Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Climate Research, 23, 171e181.
  40. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., Mills, B., & Minogue, A. (2006). Climate change and sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: a reassessment. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 376e398.
  41. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., & Minogue, A. (2006). The implications of climate change for the Québec ski industry. Global Environmental Change, 1, 181e190.
  42. Shih, C., Nicholls, S., & Holecek, D. F. (2009). Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales. Journal of Travel Research, 47(3), 359e372.
  43. Steiger, R. (2010). The impact of climate change on ski season length and snow- making requirements in Tyrol, Austria. Climate Research, 43(3), 251e262.
  44. Steiger, R. (2011). The impact of snow scarcity on ski tourism. An analysis of the record warm season 2006/07 in Tyrol (Austria). Tourism Review, 66(3), 4e13.
  45. Unbehaun, W., Probstl, U., & Haider, W. (2008). Trends in winter sports tourism: challenges for the future. Tourism Review, 63(1), 36e47. Union of Concerned Scientists. (2006). Climate change and the US Northeast. A report of the US Northeast climate impacts assessment. Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists. Accessed 30.04.07, available at: http://www. northeastclimateimpacts.org/.
  46. UNWTO-UNEP. (2003). Climate change and tourism. Djerba, Tunisia, WTO. UNWTO-UNEP-WMO. (2008). Climate change and tourism: Responding to global challenges (prepared by Scott, D., Amelung, B., Becken, S., Ceron, J. P., Dubois, G., Gössling, S., Peeters, P. and Simpson, M.C.). Madrid/Paris: UNEP/UNWTO.
  47. Vivian, K. (2011). Behavioural adaptation of skiers and snowboarders in the US Northeast to climate variability and change. Unpublished thesis. University of Waterloo.
  48. VSAA. (2004). About us. Accessed 19.03.07, available at: http://www.skivermont. com. Whetton, P. H., Haylock, M. R., & Galloway, R. (1996). Climate change and snow- cover duration in the Australian alps. Climatic Change, 32, 447e479. Jackie Dawson is the Canada Research Chair in Environ- ment, Society, and Policy in the Department of Geography and in the Institute for Science, Society and Policy at the University of Ottawa, Canada Daniel Scott is the Canada Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism in the Department of Geography& Environmental Management at the University of Waterloo, Canada

FAQs

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AI

How did projected climate change affect ski season lengths in the Northeast US?add

The study predicts that only 55% and 54% of ski areas can maintain 100-day seasons by 2039 under low and high emissions scenarios, respectively.

What modeling methods were used to assess ski area economic viability?add

The study utilized three Global Climate Models and a ski-sim operations model to predict changes in season length, operational probability, and snowmaking needs.

Why is snow reliability declining for ski resorts under climate change scenarios?add

A rise of just 2°C is projected to reduce 'snow reliable' ski areas in Switzerland from 91% to 61%, and further increases drastically decrease this reliability.

What percentage of operational ski areas are likely to close due to climate change?add

By the end of the 2070s, only 30 ski areas may remain operational under high emissions scenarios, indicating a significant reduction in viable resorts.

What implications does changing skier behavior have for ski area management?add

Research indicates skiers may seek alternative locations or ski less frequently if local resorts face marginal conditions, impacting overall ski tourism participation.

About the author
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Daniel Scott
University of Waterloo, Faculty Member

Dr. Daniel Scott is a University Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism and the Executive Director of Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change at the University of Waterloo (Canada). He has authored more than 150 peer-reviewed articles and book chapters. He has been a contributing author and expert reviewer for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third, Fourth, Fifth Assessment Reports and Special 1.5C Report. He has also led projects for the United Nations World Tourism Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, World Meteorological Organization, European Tourism Commission and World Travel and Tourism Council. He received the award for scholarly distinction from the Canadian Association of Geographers in 2018.

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