Here come the speeches…
For some of those who have Andy Burnham’s phone number, a notification:
Andy Burnham is on Signal!
The open-source encrypted messaging service is a favourite of the privacy-minded. Some briefing to do Andy?
New polling in Manchester from YouGov:
Manchester uses the SV voting system, which automatically redistributes second-choice votes of all those ballots whose first choice was someone not in the top two. YouGov says:
“YouGov surveyed 2,200 people in Greater Manchester and finds that although Craig is set to fall short of the 50% of the vote needed to be elected after the first count, she holds 38% of first preference votes in our model’s central estimates. Joining Craig in the second round is likely to be her fellow Manchester councillor Sian Astley of Reform UK, who takes 24% of first votes.
Once the second preferences of eliminated candidates’ supporters are accounted for, our model projects that Bev Craig is on course to win on the second count by a margin of 62% to 38%.”
Labour’s changes to the voting system making things a little easier – nothing to see here…
The ‘sensibles’ brought in to ‘advise’ Burnham on economics are set to be shunned when it comes to formal advisory positions in government. Not even a month has passed since they were supposedly brought into the Burnham fold…
Team Burnham provided a pointed briefing to two financial papers on the eve of the Makerfield by-election that Richard Hughes, Andy Haldane, and Jim O’Neill were advising Andy on the economy. From the Guardian last night:
“Richard Hughes, the former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, is not expected to take a formal position. Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs chief economist, and Andy Haldane, the former Bank of England chief economist, are also unlikely to have formal roles.”
The paper is also shoring up rumours that radical leftist Miatta Fahnbulleh won’t have a top economic advisory role but may have a ministerial job instead. SW1 sources have speculated that getting Fahnbulleh out of the way would be a key priority for Blairite No10 Chief of Staff James Purnell. There was a curious briefing in the Telegraph not long ago:
‘Under an “affordable energy guarantee”, all households would be offered discounted rates for “essential” energy use, with thresholds adjusted for household size and extra support for low-income households.
However, some Labour figures have expressed doubts about some elements of the proposal, while others have questioned how the Government will fund the policy without significant tax rises.
Allies of James Purnell, Mr Burnham’s chief of staff, described parts of a broader cost of living package put forward by Ms Fahnbulleh to Mr Burnham as “naive” and unworkable.’
The boat is rocking and it has not yet left port…
Downing Street’s new Director of Political Strategy is a pro-Wealth Tax campaigner. Buckle up…
Matthew McGregor, formerly a director at Hope Not Hate, has strong views on raising tax. He was Chief Executive of the leftist campaigning organisation 38 Degrees. Less than two years ago he was campaigning for the imposition of a 2% annual tax on the assets held by those worth more than £10 million. It was argued “the cash could help recruit 135,000 more NHS staff. McGregor said: “A tax on the ultra-rich will deliver.” The basket case tax proposal is a complete disaster abandoned by almost every country which has tried it…
He also backed Gordon Brown’s proposals for massive new levies on gambling, saying: “Tax the massive profits of the gambling firms to stop rising child poverty.” He additionally campaigned for more taxation of “eye-watering profits energy firms are making”…
McGregor said before the Budget last year: “If taxes do rise, they should obviously fall very disproportionately on the ultra rich, the big banks, gambling firms, fossil fuel firms. Those who have it toughest should obviously be protected. But opposing all tax rises means brutal austerity.” There are your new targets…
Burnham’s new appointment has also said “the fiscal rules are too tight, the manifesto was too cautious. In the longterm, investment in jobs, education & training to solve sort productivity are the routes to prosperity.” Doesn’t bode well for said fiscal rules…
He said the manifesto has ample room to increase taxes on the wealthy: “Higher taxes on the wealthy, especially via closing loopholes, is very popular in itself. Using the money to fund public services even more so. Labour made an election promise to ensure ‘those with the broadest shoulders’ paid their fair share and won a mandate to do so.” He said in 2022: “45p tax cut for the rich was bad.” Don’t be surprised when Burnham’s piecemeal cocktail of tax rises pours sand into the gears of the British economy…
Polanski told BBC Breakfast this morning that he has no security and he is worried:
“I am worried and I’ve been worried for a long time and I would note that Gawain Towler who is one of Reform’s closest advisers did say yesterday that other than Nigel Farage he can see that I’m under threat. I would say the big difference is Nigel Farage seems to have been offered state security and turned it down whereas so far I haven’t been offered anything at all…
It’s important that cross party we all speak with one voice on this. We must condemn political violence and no matter what someone’s views are, no matter what their politics, it’s vital we separate the person from their politics and everyone no matter what their views are deserve to be safe in their place of work…
I would encourage the government to provide me with extra security but that is a choice for them. What they have done already is there are two operations that the police have. One is called Operation Ford which is for councillors and one is called Operation Bridger which is for MPs. I’m in the unusual situation as a London assembly member and leader of the party that I haven’t fallen under either.
The Home Office since the local elections have reviewed that and now I fall under Operation Ford. So I welcome the movement on that and that’s provided me with some extra safety and some extra steps. But in terms of having security, I am worried about it both for myself and for all party leaders. It’s not going to stop me getting on with the job.”
An issue of growing concern among members of the political class…
Tom Baldwin, author of Starmer’s hagiography, spoke to Times Radio:
Tom Baldwin: “I think he’d like to do something. He’s very dutiful and driven by service. That’s why he came into politics. I think that’s characterised his time as prime minister. He hasn’t always sought popularity or been good at being popular. But I think he has some of the necessary qualities that we actually do want in a prime minister. That resilience, that relentlessness, that ability to carry the weight and the job really does weigh very heavily on people and he carries that weight very, very well.”
Jo Coburn: “NATO Secretary-General?”
Tom Baldwin: “I think that’s something that he would be interested in. I think it probably requires Andy Burnham’s government to support him in that and these are some of the questions which Andy Burnham has to resolve quite quickly.”
