The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome shows how acute thermal stress challenges prevailing assumptions about ecological resilience and adaptation. Extreme heat events are revealing physiological limits in forests that are not captured by conventional climate risk frameworks.

The authors develop an early warning system to predict the risks of extreme temperatures for 30,585 vertebrates 1–9 months in advance. They identify species and regions at risk and highlight the potential for early warning systems to maximize management activities that mitigate negative outcomes.

Sea-level rise in conjunction with storm surge and tidal variations leads to extreme sea levels that threaten coastal systems. Here the authors use tide-gauge data and models to quantify how anthropogenic climate change has increased the risk of these extreme sea-level events since 1900.

Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median temperatures instead of probability ranges is more robust.

Unlike previous work showing that people underestimate others’ support for climate action, this study finds systematic pluralistic ignorance in both directions: frequent attitudes and actual behaviours are underestimated but rare ones are overestimated. This can be explained by general cognitive processes.

The scale of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could determine the extent of co-emitted air pollutants in net-zero scenarios and potential health impacts. By linking a series of models and datasets, researchers find that low-CDR pathways lead to a more equitable distribution of health benefits across the USA.

Tropical climate, including sea surface temperatures (SSTs), varies with natural cycles such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Niño/Niña variability. This work shows that the SST variability weakens under future greenhouse warming, with implications for predictability.

Changes in the ocean in response to climate change could impact its ability to function as a carbon sink. This study shows that under high emissions, circulation changes will reduce anthropogenic carbon uptake even as biological storage increases, whereas under low emissions, temperature is the key factor.

Soil carbon is a critical component of the terrestrial carbon sink and is impacted by the total belowground carbon allocation (TBCA). This study uses a long-term multifactor grassland experiment to show that elevated temperature and CO₂ increased the TBCA over time, modulated by drought and N addition.

Carbon markets reward the climate mitigation benefits of nature-based solutions but rarely value their broader societal impacts. Creating markets for verified co-benefits, such as coastal protection and biodiversity, could redirect investment towards projects that deliver larger gains for both people and climate.