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Climate change

Linear and nonlinear signatures

Nature volume 398, pages 755–756 (1999) Cite this article

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It is probable that the observed warming of the Earth by 0.7 °C over the past 100 years is caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and that if trends continue the Earth will warm by another 2-3 °C before the end of the next century1. But can claimed increases in the frequency of extreme events such as storms, floods and droughts be ascribed to human influence, or are they simply due to the natural vagaries of climate? And what might be the effects of possible anthropogenic climate change on the occurrence of such anomalies in the future?

It is the changes in the statistics of extreme events, rather than in the mean temperature, that will probably have the strongest impact on human living conditions. On page 799 of this issue2, Corti et al. tackle this statistical question. They suggest that there is a direct interconnection between short-term climate variations on timescales of less than five years, which are known to have a strong influence on extreme weather events, and mean climate change on longer timescales, such as a change in the mean temperature or pressure distribution.

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Figure 1: Random walks and climate change.
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  1. the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 55, D-20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Klaus Hasselmann

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  1. Klaus Hasselmann
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Hasselmann, K. Linear and nonlinear signatures. Nature 398, 755–756 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/19635

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