July 16, 2026

Burns Bucks

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Cincinnati Reds signed seasonal age starting pitcher Chase Burns to a seven year, $105 million contract:

Burns’ deal would run through the 2033 season and under the current labor contract covers three seasons of arbitration eligibility and the first two years after he would have been eligible for free agency. It does not include options or deferrals.

Chron.com

Burns improved his ERA this season by two runs compared to his first year in 2025, but his three-true outcomes stayed consistent. He owns a good home run rate for someone who pitches half his games in Cincinnati.

The improvement came from a drop in BABIP allowed, from .360 to .264. He’s only allowed 77 hits in 102 2/3 innings this year. His pitch arsenal is the same, but he has reduce line drive and increase fly ball rates. If the Reds get ten or eleven WAR out of him (which includes all his prime years) the contract will be worth it.

July 16, 2026

Game of the Day

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The Mets take on the Phillies in the lone game to kick off the last eleven weeks of the 2026 season. Both these teams started the season poorly. After 28 games, both stood at 9-19, the worst record in the majors. On top of that, their NL East rival Atlanta held a 20-9 record, the best in the majors. The Phillies pulled the trigger at that point and fire manager Rob Thomson, replace him with Don Mattingly. Philadelphia went on a 16-4 run to pull themselves above .500.

The Mets continued to play poorly, going 25-28 from that point through June 25th, while the Phillies went 36-17, second only the Brewers. The Braves went 28-22, allowing the Phillies to make up some ground. The Mets finally pulled the trigger at that point, replacing manager Carlos Mendoza with Andy Green. Since then the Phillies are 9-7, the Braves 7-9, and the Mets 6-10. Green did not have the same impact as Mattingly.

What’s the difference in the Phillies? The offense went from a .219/.294/.362 slash line under Thomson to a .243/.307/.413 line under Mattingly. The biggest change came with runners in scoring position. Under Thomson, they hit a little better than their overall numbers, but under Mattingly their line soared to .278/.353/.487.

Note, too, that the pitching and defense improved quite a bit. The pitchers produced an opposition slash line of .286/.349/.436 under Thomson, .242/.305/.400 under Mattingly. It could very well be that Thomson’s managerial style eventually wore on the team, and firing him got the team to relax and play well. Of course, it could just be that Phillies were a good team going through a bad stretch, and they would have regressed to their mean anyway.

The Mets are still waiting for the regression.

July 16, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

There is only one game in the majors today. ESPN gets to decide if they want to open the post-break period with a stand alone game, and they decided to move the Mets at the Phillies to Thursday night. Nola posts a good strikeout rate this season of 9.46 batters per 9 innings pitched, but owns an opposition BABIP of .325. Couple that with a high home run rate, and he allowed 108 hits in 97 innings. That’s why the Mets dominate the projected hit average. Of the Mets players with at least 10 PA against Nola, Bichette does hit him the best, four for 13, a .308 hit average. Score one for Log5.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.281, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.246, 0.671 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Christian Scott.
  • 0.272, 0.657 — Carson Benge batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.270, 0.651 — Andrew Ewing batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.268, 0.650 — Juan Soto batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.261, 0.642 — Francisco Alvarez batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.216, 0.633 — Trea Turner batting vs. Christian Scott.
  • 0.246, 0.630 — Francisco Lindor batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.248, 0.628 — Eric Wagaman batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.252, 0.626 — Jared Young batting at Aaron Nola.

With only one game, the probabilities are pretty low. If you’re starting a streak, take a chance with Bichette. If you have a long streak in progress, today might be a good day to skip a pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 14, 2026

Ball, Finger, Knob

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Junior Caminero just got hit on his left lower two fingers, the digits getting caught between the ball and the knob of the bat. Caminero was down in pain for a bit, then got up and ran to the dugout. He’s out of the game, and we’ll wait to hear if the fingers suffered any damage. The AL still leads the NL 3-0 in the top of the third inning.

July 14, 2026

July 14, 2026

Walker Slugger

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I’m catching up after a long day on the road. Congratulations to Jordan Walker on winning the Home Run Derby. I only got to see the first two rounds last night. During the second round, one of the announcers noticed that Walker was swinging smart. He wasn’t trying to drive the ball as far as he could, he was hitting it so it would go out. That probably saved him some energy for the final round.

At seasonal age 24 he matured into a dangerous slugger, and he showed all of baseball just how well he can hit last night.

July 13, 2026

The Majors at the Break

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The 2026 season flies in the face of the owners claim that MLB needs a salary cap to stay competitive. There is one team a bit above .600, and three teams just below .400. For the first time in a while, there is no truly terrible team. Here’s the Baseball Musings Season Simulator running a 15 team league where each team plays the others 12 times (168 games). Each team is assigned an intrinsic winning percentage of .500. Run it a number of times and you should see a season that looks like the AL or NL this year:

Image

My point being that the 2026 season is consistent with the idea that the league is very evenly matched. If the league is evenly matched, it does not need a salary cap just because every 25 years or so some team dominates the World Series for a few seasons.

One thing that looks like it worked well came from the last CBA, the incentives that allow pre-arbitration players to earn bonuses. From what I observed, the young stars are competing with each other not just for the rookie of the year trophy, but to see who can take home the biggest bonus. As economists like to say, “Incentives matter.”

I also suspect the draft lottery helps, too. It’s no longer worth tanking. It might even help some teams that don’t need much find the extra talent to move up quicker.

All in all, I’m very happy with 2026, where a ten game win streak can put almost any team back in contention.

July 13, 2026

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 15 weeks in 2026, MLB games produced 9.03 runs per game compared to 8.75 runs per game in 2025. The quarter run increase puts MLB games on the sweet spot of 9.0 runs per game. Sports have optimum scoring ranges. We don’t want games dominated by offense or defense, and fan reaction indicates nine runs per game is where fans find the balance acceptable. Football, for example, changes rules constantly to keep the score at about 42 points per game. Baseball became better at this lately, although MLB gets more pushback from fans.

That’s the good news. The bad news is the balance came with an increase in three-true outcomes. Home runs per game are up 0.1 per game, from 2.2 HR per game to 2.3 HR per game, and in six of the last seven weeks they trended higher than that. Strikeouts are up from 16.5 per game to 16.7 per game. Walks are up from 6.4 per game to 6.8 per game, although they have moderated starting with week six. It is the walks that are driving the higher scoring, maybe not the optimal way to get there, because the walks come win a lowering of BABIP hits (singles, doubles, triples) from 14.3 per game in 2025 to 14.0 per game in 2026. BABIP hits generate action, and fans like action.

Week 15 was also right on the sweet spot, with 8.98 runs per game. Home runs were high at 2.5 per game, BABIP hits were low at 13.6 per game, walks were low at 6.5 per game, and strikeouts were right in line at 16.6 per game.

July 12, 2026

Best Pitcher at the Break

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The battle Sunday afternoon between Zack Wheeler of the Phillies and Tarik Skubal of the Tigers was good but short, resulting in a 5-0 Phillies win. Skubal lasted five innings, taking the loss as he allowed two runs and one walk with five strikeouts for a game score of 55. That was enough to put him 0.06 points ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers in the Bill James Pitcher Rankings. Wheeler lasted six innings, allowing two hits, two walks, and no runs while striking out ten. That gave him the highest game score of the day, a 76, tied with Zach Thornton of the Mets. They posted the same hits, walks, and runs, but Thornton pitched one more inning with five fewer strikeouts. The Red Sox on that game 3-2.

Wheeler is now in third place, about two and a half points ahead of his teammate, Cristopher Sanchez. Paul Skenes of the Pirates posted a game score of 60 in the 14-5 win over the Brewers, ranking Skenes fifth.

July 12, 2026

Best Batter at the Break

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Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs grabs the top slot of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as teams go into the All-Star break. He singled and walked twice in a 8-4 win over the Cubs, raising his OBP to .386. His teammate, Alex Bregman, posted the highest game score of the day, a 74. He singled, doubled, and homered in five at bats. Bregman’s slash line stands at .241/.336/.359. All his averages are down from last season, with his lack of power the biggest disappointment.

Rays teammates Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda rank second and third. Caminero drew a walk in four trips to the plate, while Aranda collected a home run and hit by pitch in an 8-2 Mariners win.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks fourth after a two for three with two walks in a 6-5, late inning win by the Rangers. Alvarez brought his league leading OBP up to .426. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates moved back into the top five with a one for two in a 14-5 win over the Brewers, Pittsburgh sweeping that series. The Pirates are just two games out of the third wild card slot.

July 12, 2026

July 12, 2026

Game of the Day

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We get a real treat as MLB heads into the All-Star break as the Phillies send Zack Wheeler against the Tigers and Tarik Skubal in Detroit. Since the start of the 2023 season, Skubal ranks first in ERA, Wheeler third. Both strike out over ten batters per game, neither walking many. Both do a decent job of keeping the ball in the park.

Wheeler does make up for his higher ERA by going deep in games. In that time, and despite a long injury layoff last season, Wheeler collected 90 more innings than Skubal.

Wheeler is going to be an interesting Hall of Fame candidate. An early two season injury meant he didn’t come into his own until seasonal age 28. In his 30s, when most pitchers wane, Wheeler put up fantastic numbers, so far accumulating 35.2 rWAR in 6 1/2 seasons. His career rWAR stands at 44.3. Three more years of five WAR seasons would put him at 60, so he’s going to need a Nolan Ryan type late surge to assure a Hall election. If not, we’ll see if voters were willing to extrapolate backwards to give him a nod.

Enjoy!

July 12, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Every time the Giants play the Rockies the leaderboard for Log5 is dominated by Giants hitters. That’s due to the Giants owning the highest hit average in the majors, .234, and the Rockies pitchers owning the highest opposition hit average in the majors, .255. The MLB hit average is currently .216. It’s a perfect storm of hits when these teams meet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.362, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.342, 0.728 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.308, 0.720 — Ernie Clement batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.271, 0.704 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Robert Gasser.
  • 0.281, 0.704 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Joey Cantillo.
  • 0.319, 0.699 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.290, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting at Dustin May.
  • 0.262, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.285, 0.690 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Will Warren.
  • 0.311, 0.689 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Arraez collected five hits in 10 PA against Lorenzen in their careers with one strikeout. Lee went two for five with no walks and no Ks. So the unanimous double down seems like a good one today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 12, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Junior Caminero of the Rays took over the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, producing a double and two walks in a 6-1 win over the Mariners. His teammate, Jonathan Aranda ranks third after a three f four with two doubles. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs dropped to second place, drawing two walks in five PA in a 5-3 win over the Reds. His OBP stands at .383.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted the second highest game score of the day, a 75, returning to the top five in fourth place. He doubled, homered, and drew two walks in a 9-3 win over the first place Rangers. Alvarez is now tied for the AL lead in hits with 109, leads in home runs with 31, extra-base hits with 48, total bases with 219, RBI with 70, OBP with .422, and slugging percentage with .633.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins rounds out the the five after drawing a walk in a 4-1 Guardians win. That drops his BA to .339, and his NL lead over Luis Arraez in the category is down to seven points.

Esmerlyn Valdez of the Pirates produced the highest game score of the day in game one of the doubleheader against the Brewers. His three for four with two homers and six RBI totaled to an 82. He also homered in game two, giving him homers in three straight games. He is 100 PA into his career, and anything can happen in that small sample size, but he does own the highest slugging percentage this season for anyone with at least 100 PA. His numbers are a bit more amazing considering he struck out 36 times. His BABIP stands at .400.

July 12, 2026

July 11, 2026

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, It’s Magic

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Esmerlyn Valdez of the Pirates swung his magic wand on Saturday and delivered three home runs in a doubleheader sweep of the Brewers. That gives him ten home runs in 100 MLB plate appearances in his first season. He owns a .311/.370/.722 slash line with 16 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. He also homered Thursday, giving him homers in three straight games.

The Pirates move to two games over .500 and just three games out of the wild card slot.

July 11, 2026

July 11, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Mariners try to stop their slide as they send Logan Gilbert against the Rays and Griffin Jax. Gilbert seems like he should own a better career ERA than 3.53. His strikeout rate is good, his walk rate is great, and his home run rate is okay. He limits hits. He simply pitches worse with men on base, enough to take him out of elite territory. He’s been especially bad with less than two out and a runner on third base. According to MLB, Jax induced nine double plays in 45 opportunities. My calculation has the nine in 54 opportunities. It seems that MLB is not counting walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts as opportunities, which strikes me as wrong.

Cristopher Sanchez tries to recover from his prior poor outing as he and the Phillies square off against the Tigers and Casey Mize. Sanchez Sanchez reached 10 wins for the third season in a row, and needs just four more win for a new single season high of 14. The Tigers seem to have turned their season around, 22-12 since June 1st, with only the Marlins (26-9) and the Brewers (24-13) better. Mize during that stretch owns a 3.38 ERA with great walk numbers.

Enjoy!

July 11, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s another ridiculous day for the Giants as they face another Rockies pitcher that is easily pounded. His is a lefty, however, and Arraez only faced him three times, collecting one hit. Schmitt is three for eight against Freeland, and Ramos stands 6 for 16.

Note that the Brewers and Pirates play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.380, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.363, 0.745 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.338, 0.714 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.713 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Shane Drohan.
  • 0.290, 0.712 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.303, 0.712 — Ernie Clement batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.276, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
  • 0.308, 0.708 — Michael Harris II batting at Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.329, 0.704 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.279, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kumar Rocker.

The two systems agree on the top three, or you could just double down with Mangum!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 11, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Tristan Peters of the White Sox posted the highest game score of the day on Friday, an 87. He hit for the cycle in an unusual way:

Per Elias, Peters became the third player in at least the expansion era (since 1961) to complete the cycle by getting two hits in the same inning, joining the Orioles’ Felix Pie (seventh inning, Aug. 14, 2009, single and triple) and the Giants’ Jim Ray Hart (fifth inning, July 8, 1970, triple and home run).

He also became the fifth player since at least 1900 to achieve the cycle as a No. 9 hitter.

MLB.com

He homered and tripled in the seventh inning. His four for four raised his slash line to .303/.357/.484 on the season, certainly helping out the White Sox resurgence. Chicago beat the Athletics 14-1.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a poor game, 0 for 4 with three strikeouts, the Reds winning 4-0. He is now two points ahead of Junior Caminero of the Rays who doubled and homered in a 7-2 win over the Mariners. The reeling Mariners fall under .500, 1 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West. Caminero’s teammate, Jonathan Aranda, ranks fifth after a three for five performance, including a double.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins comes in third after an 0 for 4 in a 3-2 Guardians win. Juan Soto of the Mets holds fourth place as he singles and hits a sacrifice fly in a 6-2 Red Sox win.

July 11, 2026

July 10, 2026

Base Running Strategy

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The Marlins broadcasters just explained an interesting strategy the Marlins deploy when they have a man on third and a left-handed batter at the plate. The runner in that situation takes a lead in fair territory. Normally, that is frowned upon because if a batted ball hits that runner, the runner is out. The Marlins feel that is very rare with a lefty up, and taking the lead in fair territory takes away the catcher’s ability to throw a pickoff to third. It’s a little thing, but kudos to the Marlins for trying to get a small edge.

July 10, 2026

July 10, 2026

Games of the Day

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Two teams fighting for division titles meet in Miami as the Guardians send Parker Messick against Sandy Alcantara. Messick, with his 2.80 ERA and his outstanding three-true outcomes is making a nice bid for AL Rookie of the Year. He currently rates a 3.2 rWAR for the season. Alcantara owns a 10-4 record with a 4.00 ERA. He goes deep in games, leading the majors with 123 2/3 IP.

The Diamondbacks try to reach .500 again as they send Eduardo Rodriguez against Shohei Ohtani. Rodriguez is making a bid for comeback player of the year. After posting ERAs over 5.00 the previous two seasons, he comes into this game with a 2.25 mark. He strikes out fewer batters, but does a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Ohtani ranks great with home runs on both sides of the ball. As a pitcher, he allowed the lowest HR per 9 rate the majors with a minimum of 80 innings.

Enjoy!

July 10, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The weakness of the Log5 Method is that an outlier pitcher makes everyone on the opposition look like a star. That said, Gordon is clearly awful, with a .354 opposition BABIP in 155 innings. He doesn’t walk batters, but I suspect that’s because batters see pitches they want to hit before he can deep in counts. He’s actually worse on the road than he is at Coors Field.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

The NN doesn’t turn the entire Giants roster into superstars, but the two systems agree on the top four. The last time Arraez produced a very high probability he did not get a hit, however. Arraez is just one for twelve against Gordon with a walk and one strikeout. Lee, Ramos, and Schmitt are all one for five. Devers is three for five, however. Still, if you trust the probabilities more than small sample sizes, Arraez and Lee are the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 10, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs stayed atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as he doubled and walked in a 3-2 Orioles win, pushing his OBP up to .387. Otto Lopez of the Marlins moved into second place with a triple and two walks in an 8-4 win over the Mariners, the Marlins sweeping their fellow sea-themed team. Lopez’s triple was his sixth of the season. He owned one triple in his MLB career coming into 2026.

Third and fourth place belong to Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz of the Rays respectively. Caminero hit his 27th home run of the season and Diaz singled in a 12-4 Yankees win, the teams splitting a four-game series.

Juan Soto of the Mets sits in fifth place after homering and drawing two walks in a 7-3 win over the Royals.

Jake Mangum of the Pirates posted the highest game score of the day, an 80. His four for five with a double and a home run wasn’t enough, however, to save Pittsburgh from a 10-5 Braves win. The home run was Mangum’s second of the season. He is a singles hitter, with 98 of his 120 hits going for extra bases. With a low walk rate and little power, his .311 BA represents a high percentage of his offensive ability.

July 10, 2026

July 9, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Brewers finish their series in St. Louis with Logan Henderson facing Andre Pallante. Henderson owns a 2.23 ERA in ten MLB starts. He struck out 63 batters in 48 1/3 innings with just 14 walks. Pallante owns ten wins as we approach the All-Star break, a single season career high for him. Never a high K rate pitcher, he cut down on his walks allowed this season, making the balls in play less effective due to fewer runners on base.

The slugfest of the day could take place in San Diego where Merrill Kelly leads the Diamondbacks against Griffin Canning. Kelly comes into the game with a 5.71 ERA, having allowed 19 home runs in 86 2/3 innings. Canning owns a 6.71 ERA, thanks in part to a walk rate of 5.29 batters per 9 IP. That helps the 52 hits he allowed in 51 inning do a lot of damage.

Enjoy!

July 9, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Marsh is a good match for Singer. Both own high BABIPs, but Singer adds a high number of home runs allowed.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.292, 0.722 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.287, 0.711 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Bryce Elder.
  • 0.305, 0.704 — Brandon Marsh batting at Brady Singer.
  • 0.293, 0.702 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.286, 0.702 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Bryce Elder.
  • 0.289, 0.699 — Michael Harris II batting at Mitch Keller.
  • 0.280, 0.698 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.250, 0.696 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Bryce Miller.
  • 0.271, 0.689 — Jacob Wilson batting at Framber Valdez.
  • 0.300, 0.688 — Blaze Alexander batting vs. David Peterson.

Arraez owns a 4 for 14, .308 against Feltner in his career with no walks and one strikeout. So the Log5 projection is spot on. Lopez and Harris own two of the longest active hit streaks. Marsh is the consensus top pick, with Arraez the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 9, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs posted a game score of 73 to top the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. PCA went two for four, both hits home runs, and drew a walk in a 9-7 win over the Orioles. That brought his OBP up to .386 and his slugging percentage to .542. Yandy Diaz of the Rays used a game score of 72 to move into second place, his four for four with a double helping to beat the Yankees 3-1. His teammate, Junior Caminero, ranks third after an 0 for 4 in the game.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins stayed hot with a single and a double in four PA as Miami beats the Mariners 2-0. His 26 doubles lead the National League and MLB. Juan Soto of the Mets sits in fifth place after walking twice in a 6-2 win over the Royals.

Jo Adell of the Angels posted the highest game score of the day, a 77. He went two for four with two home runs and five RBI in a 13-1 win over the Rangers. Adell’s power dropped this season. After hitting 37 home runs in 2025, he only hit 13 so for in 2026. Maybe Wednesday’s game is the start of the return of his power.