July 18, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Pirates play a doubleheader in Cleveland today. Logan Allen is scheduled for the night-cap, but check carefully before picking from those games.

Wilson and Littell match up nicely, as both sport low strikeout and walk rates. That means a lot of balls in play, and only balls in play can find holes for hits.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.297, 0.719 — Jake Mangum batting at Logan Allen.
  • 0.298, 0.716 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Zack Littell.
  • 0.281, 0.710 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryan Woo.
  • 0.292, 0.710 — Otto Lopez batting at Shane Drohan.
  • 0.296, 0.709 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Davis Martin.
  • 0.285, 0.703 — Yandy Diaz batting at Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.286, 0.698 — Nick Gonzales batting at Logan Allen.
  • 0.281, 0.695 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Griffin Canning.
  • 0.260, 0.694 — Jake Mangum batting at Gavin Williams.
  • 0.274, 0.690 — Chandler Simpson batting at Patrick Sandoval.

You could double down with Mangum today. Mangum against Allen and Wilson are the consensus double down picks, however.

By the way, the four highest percent of BA as offense in 2026 make this list:

BAChandler Simpson BAJake Mangum BAJacob Wilson BAErnie Clement

Mangum and Simpson hit mostly singles. The elongated outer ellipse shows that Wilson and Clement generate some power.

July 18, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda of the Rays rank one and four respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after the Red Sox swept a doubleheader Friday 10-0 and 5-3. Caminero went three for eight on the day with a home run, while Aranda drew a walk in eight PA. Game one was the first of four games to see a team score at least ten runs.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks second after a two for three with two walks and a double in a 3-2 Orioles win. Alvarez raised his OBP to .431 and his slugging percentage to .636. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs sits in third place after drawing a walk in 5-2 Twins win. Fifth place Bryan Reynolds and the Pirates did not play as the game as smoke from the wildfires caused the postponement of the game.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Andres Chaparro of the Nationals, a 93. It is the ninth score of 90 or better this season, and the third in July. He posted a four for five with a walk, two home runs, and eight RBI in the 23-4 at the Athletics. In his third season with Washington, Chaparro so far improved his ability to get on base by drawing more walks. He came into 2026 with 12 walks in 205 PA. This season he already drew eleven walks in 71 PA. His batting average remains low, but the .352 OBP and six of his thirteen hits going for extra bases makes him valuable.

Note that the Athletics fired their pitching coach over the All-Star break. So far it hasn’t made a difference.

July 18, 2026

July 17, 2026

Going to Eleven

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The Red Sox sweep a doubleheader from the Rays to extend their winning streak to eleven games. That raises Boston’s winning percentage to .500, 48-48, now eight games back in the division. The outscored the AL East leaders 15-3, 10-0 in the afternoon game, 5-3 in the night-cap. The Red Sox starters allowed 12 runs in 55 1/3 innings during the streak.

July 17, 2026

AI is Everywhere

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MLB teams were using their dugout tablets to call pitches and determine strategy:

Major League Baseball banned the practice beginning Wednesday.

The crackdown was issued in a June 11 memo to teams but wasn’t put in place until the day before the second half of the season began following the All-Star break.

As first reported by The Athletic, MLB found that some teams were using league-issued iPads in the dugout “beyond their originally intended purpose to include recommendations regarding substitutions, pitch calling, and other in-game decisions traditionally made by players and coaches.”

NYPost.com

So what will happen is the AI will produce a matrix or the probabilities on paper, and the dugout pitch caller will become adept at reading that output. It will be the same outcome with different media.

July 17, 2026

Hunt Passes

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Hit by pitch king Ron Hunt died at the age of 85:

Never a slugger, Hunt hit 10 of his 39 career home runs as a rookie in 1963. He is perhaps best known for being hit by pitches. He led his league in HBPs seven times, including 50 in the 1971 season alone. His 243 career beanings rank sixth all-time.

“Some folks give their bodies to science,” Hunt once said. “I gave mine to baseball.”

TheBigLead.com

My thoughts go out to his family and friends.

Hunt held the modern HBP record when he retired. Craig Biggio, Don Baylor, and Jason Kendall managed to pass him. He walked 555 times, and finished with an excellent .368 OBP.

His best season came in 1968 with the Giants, not surprisingly his age 27 season. His .250/.371/.297 slash line in a tough season for hitters helped him to a 4.6 rWAR.

July 17, 2026

Topping Off the Fluids

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Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers received an injection of lubrication into his knee:

Roberts said Ohtani had the procedure after Sunday’s game against Arizona. Ohtani last pitched on July 3.

“It gives him some relief in his knee, which we were hoping to get, and then the four days off from activity, which gets it all to kind of settle in,” Roberts said. “I think we are certainly more prepared to back off on the workload if it calls for it, but Shohei wants to be out there as much as he possibly can.”

Chron.com

I asked Claude.AI how the knee is naturally lubricated:

The knee is lubricated by synovial fluid, a viscous liquid produced by the synovial membrane that lines the joint capsule. This fluid fills the joint cavity and coats the surfaces that move against each other.

The lubrication works through a few mechanisms. The cartilage capping the ends of the femur and tibia is smooth and porous; under pressure it releases fluid, and when unloaded it reabsorbs it, so a thin film is maintained between surfaces (weeping lubrication). Synovial fluid contains hyaluronic acid, which gives it its viscosity and thickens it under low shear, and lubricin (a glycoprotein), which coats the cartilage surface and provides boundary lubrication when the surfaces are pressed close together at high load. Together these give the knee an extremely low coefficient of friction, lower than ice on ice.

The fluid also nourishes the cartilage, which has no blood supply of its own and depends on this exchange for oxygen and nutrients.

Age and injury can disrupt this system.

July 17, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Rays and Red Sox start the day early with a 1:30 EDT game one of a doubleheader. Boston is hot, on a nine-game win streak that put them 1/2 game out of the third AL Wild Card, while the Rays lead the AL East. Griffin Jax takes on Jake Bennett. Jax’s 5-6 record does not reflect his overall 3.47 ERA. He is 1-2 as a reliever, and pitched poorly in the role. As a starter, he stands 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA. Bennett also pitched better than his 4-3 record, with a 2.64 ERA in his first eight MLB starts. He allowed just eight walks in 47 2/3 innings.

First place teams meet in Atlanta as the Rangers send Cal Quantrill against the Braves and Chris Sale. Quantrill also pitched better in a starting role this season, with a 2.12 ERA in four starts versus a 3.68 ERA as a reliever. He’s shown better control as a starter with fewer hits allowed. Sale continues to wow at seasonal age 37 with a 2.20 ERA and a 10.74 K per 9 IP.

The Nationals invade Sacramento as Cade Cavalli takes on Gage Jump of the Athletics. Cavalli cut his home run rate by about 0.6 per 9 IP this season with a higher K rate, leading to about a half a run drop in ERA. Jump may be a better pitcher than his overall stats indicate. While his sample sizes are small, on the road he allowed a .173/.247/.222 slash line. At home, it’s .337/.383/.525.

Enjoy!

July 17, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Rays and Red Sox play a doubleheader today at Fenway, so be careful picking from those games.

Wilson only played 56 games this season. He’s striking out more and walking less, and his BA as percent of his offense stands at 61.6% third highest in MLB.

BAJacob Wilson

the inner circle represent BA, the the X axis of the outer oval is OBP, the Y axis slugging percentage. Lots of hits with little else can make one a good candidate for delivering a hit.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.295, 0.714 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
  • 0.261, 0.704 — Luis Arraez batting at Bryce Miller.
  • 0.291, 0.700 — Miguel Andujar batting at Seth Lugo.
  • 0.272, 0.697 — Otto Lopez batting at Logan Henderson.
  • 0.277, 0.696 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Anthony Kay.
  • 0.267, 0.694 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Bennett.
  • 0.260, 0.694 — Jake Mangum batting at Gavin Williams.
  • 0.264, 0.693 — Yandy Diaz batting at Eduardo Rivera.
  • 0.277, 0.690 — Michael Harris II batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
  • 0.288, 0.689 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Brady Singer.

Note that Clement and Mangum surround Wilson on the list of BA as a high percentage of offense. Arraez is ninth, and Lopez is 11th. Wilson and Andujar rate as the consensus double down pick today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 17, 2026

Best Batter Today

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The top five in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings did not play on Thursday, as the Mets at the Phillies opened the stretch run of the season. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yordan Alvarez, and Bryan Reynolds stand as the top five.

Francisco Alvarez of the Mets posted the highest game score of the day, a 76, in a 4-1 win over the Phillies. Alvarez walked and homered twice from the nine hole. At seasonal age 24 he might be on his way to his best offensive season. He hit 25 homers in 2023, but at high cost as his .284 OBP cost the Mets a ton of outs. With a .325 OBP this season (after a .339 last year), he seems to have found a good balance between power and reaching base. If the catcher stays healthy, he should be a key piece of the Mets improvement as they try to piece together a winning team.

July 17, 2026

July 16, 2026

Burns Bucks

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Cincinnati Reds signed seasonal age starting pitcher Chase Burns to a seven year, $105 million contract:

Burns’ deal would run through the 2033 season and under the current labor contract covers three seasons of arbitration eligibility and the first two years after he would have been eligible for free agency. It does not include options or deferrals.

Chron.com

Burns improved his ERA this season by two runs compared to his first year in 2025, but his three-true outcomes stayed consistent. He owns a good home run rate for someone who pitches half his games in Cincinnati.

The improvement came from a drop in BABIP allowed, from .360 to .264. He’s only allowed 77 hits in 102 2/3 innings this year. His pitch arsenal is the same, but he has reduce line drive and increase fly ball rates. If the Reds get ten or eleven WAR out of him (which includes all his prime years) the contract will be worth it.

July 16, 2026

Game of the Day

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The Mets take on the Phillies in the lone game to kick off the last eleven weeks of the 2026 season. Both these teams started the season poorly. After 28 games, both stood at 9-19, the worst record in the majors. On top of that, their NL East rival Atlanta held a 20-9 record, the best in the majors. The Phillies pulled the trigger at that point and fire manager Rob Thomson, replace him with Don Mattingly. Philadelphia went on a 16-4 run to pull themselves above .500.

The Mets continued to play poorly, going 25-28 from that point through June 25th, while the Phillies went 36-17, second only the Brewers. The Braves went 28-22, allowing the Phillies to make up some ground. The Mets finally pulled the trigger at that point, replacing manager Carlos Mendoza with Andy Green. Since then the Phillies are 9-7, the Braves 7-9, and the Mets 6-10. Green did not have the same impact as Mattingly.

What’s the difference in the Phillies? The offense went from a .219/.294/.362 slash line under Thomson to a .243/.307/.413 line under Mattingly. The biggest change came with runners in scoring position. Under Thomson, they hit a little better than their overall numbers, but under Mattingly their line soared to .278/.353/.487.

Note, too, that the pitching and defense improved quite a bit. The pitchers produced an opposition slash line of .286/.349/.436 under Thomson, .242/.305/.400 under Mattingly. It could very well be that Thomson’s managerial style eventually wore on the team, and firing him got the team to relax and play well. Of course, it could just be that Phillies were a good team going through a bad stretch, and they would have regressed to their mean anyway.

The Mets are still waiting for the regression.

July 16, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

There is only one game in the majors today. ESPN gets to decide if they want to open the post-break period with a stand alone game, and they decided to move the Mets at the Phillies to Thursday night. Nola posts a good strikeout rate this season of 9.46 batters per 9 innings pitched, but owns an opposition BABIP of .325. Couple that with a high home run rate, and he allowed 108 hits in 97 innings. That’s why the Mets dominate the projected hit average. Of the Mets players with at least 10 PA against Nola, Bichette does hit him the best, four for 13, a .308 hit average. Score one for Log5.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.281, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.246, 0.671 — Brandon Marsh batting vs. Christian Scott.
  • 0.272, 0.657 — Carson Benge batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.270, 0.651 — Andrew Ewing batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.268, 0.650 — Juan Soto batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.261, 0.642 — Francisco Alvarez batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.216, 0.633 — Trea Turner batting vs. Christian Scott.
  • 0.246, 0.630 — Francisco Lindor batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.248, 0.628 — Eric Wagaman batting at Aaron Nola.
  • 0.252, 0.626 — Jared Young batting at Aaron Nola.

With only one game, the probabilities are pretty low. If you’re starting a streak, take a chance with Bichette. If you have a long streak in progress, today might be a good day to skip a pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 14, 2026

Ball, Finger, Knob

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Junior Caminero just got hit on his left lower two fingers, the digits getting caught between the ball and the knob of the bat. Caminero was down in pain for a bit, then got up and ran to the dugout. He’s out of the game, and we’ll wait to hear if the fingers suffered any damage. The AL still leads the NL 3-0 in the top of the third inning.

July 14, 2026

July 14, 2026

Walker Slugger

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I’m catching up after a long day on the road. Congratulations to Jordan Walker on winning the Home Run Derby. I only got to see the first two rounds last night. During the second round, one of the announcers noticed that Walker was swinging smart. He wasn’t trying to drive the ball as far as he could, he was hitting it so it would go out. That probably saved him some energy for the final round.

At seasonal age 24 he matured into a dangerous slugger, and he showed all of baseball just how well he can hit last night.

July 13, 2026

The Majors at the Break

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The 2026 season flies in the face of the owners claim that MLB needs a salary cap to stay competitive. There is one team a bit above .600, and three teams just below .400. For the first time in a while, there is no truly terrible team. Here’s the Baseball Musings Season Simulator running a 15 team league where each team plays the others 12 times (168 games). Each team is assigned an intrinsic winning percentage of .500. Run it a number of times and you should see a season that looks like the AL or NL this year:

Image

My point being that the 2026 season is consistent with the idea that the league is very evenly matched. If the league is evenly matched, it does not need a salary cap just because every 25 years or so some team dominates the World Series for a few seasons.

One thing that looks like it worked well came from the last CBA, the incentives that allow pre-arbitration players to earn bonuses. From what I observed, the young stars are competing with each other not just for the rookie of the year trophy, but to see who can take home the biggest bonus. As economists like to say, “Incentives matter.”

I also suspect the draft lottery helps, too. It’s no longer worth tanking. It might even help some teams that don’t need much find the extra talent to move up quicker.

All in all, I’m very happy with 2026, where a ten game win streak can put almost any team back in contention.

July 13, 2026

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 15 weeks in 2026, MLB games produced 9.03 runs per game compared to 8.75 runs per game in 2025. The quarter run increase puts MLB games on the sweet spot of 9.0 runs per game. Sports have optimum scoring ranges. We don’t want games dominated by offense or defense, and fan reaction indicates nine runs per game is where fans find the balance acceptable. Football, for example, changes rules constantly to keep the score at about 42 points per game. Baseball became better at this lately, although MLB gets more pushback from fans.

That’s the good news. The bad news is the balance came with an increase in three-true outcomes. Home runs per game are up 0.1 per game, from 2.2 HR per game to 2.3 HR per game, and in six of the last seven weeks they trended higher than that. Strikeouts are up from 16.5 per game to 16.7 per game. Walks are up from 6.4 per game to 6.8 per game, although they have moderated starting with week six. It is the walks that are driving the higher scoring, maybe not the optimal way to get there, because the walks come win a lowering of BABIP hits (singles, doubles, triples) from 14.3 per game in 2025 to 14.0 per game in 2026. BABIP hits generate action, and fans like action.

Week 15 was also right on the sweet spot, with 8.98 runs per game. Home runs were high at 2.5 per game, BABIP hits were low at 13.6 per game, walks were low at 6.5 per game, and strikeouts were right in line at 16.6 per game.

July 12, 2026

Best Pitcher at the Break

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The battle Sunday afternoon between Zack Wheeler of the Phillies and Tarik Skubal of the Tigers was good but short, resulting in a 5-0 Phillies win. Skubal lasted five innings, taking the loss as he allowed two runs and one walk with five strikeouts for a game score of 55. That was enough to put him 0.06 points ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers in the Bill James Pitcher Rankings. Wheeler lasted six innings, allowing two hits, two walks, and no runs while striking out ten. That gave him the highest game score of the day, a 76, tied with Zach Thornton of the Mets. They posted the same hits, walks, and runs, but Thornton pitched one more inning with five fewer strikeouts. The Red Sox on that game 3-2.

Wheeler is now in third place, about two and a half points ahead of his teammate, Cristopher Sanchez. Paul Skenes of the Pirates posted a game score of 60 in the 14-5 win over the Brewers, ranking Skenes fifth.

July 12, 2026

Best Batter at the Break

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Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs grabs the top slot of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings as teams go into the All-Star break. He singled and walked twice in a 8-4 win over the Cubs, raising his OBP to .386. His teammate, Alex Bregman, posted the highest game score of the day, a 74. He singled, doubled, and homered in five at bats. Bregman’s slash line stands at .241/.336/.359. All his averages are down from last season, with his lack of power the biggest disappointment.

Rays teammates Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda rank second and third. Caminero drew a walk in four trips to the plate, while Aranda collected a home run and hit by pitch in an 8-2 Mariners win.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros ranks fourth after a two for three with two walks in a 6-5, late inning win by the Rangers. Alvarez brought his league leading OBP up to .426. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates moved back into the top five with a one for two in a 14-5 win over the Brewers, Pittsburgh sweeping that series. The Pirates are just two games out of the third wild card slot.

July 12, 2026

July 12, 2026

Game of the Day

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We get a real treat as MLB heads into the All-Star break as the Phillies send Zack Wheeler against the Tigers and Tarik Skubal in Detroit. Since the start of the 2023 season, Skubal ranks first in ERA, Wheeler third. Both strike out over ten batters per game, neither walking many. Both do a decent job of keeping the ball in the park.

Wheeler does make up for his higher ERA by going deep in games. In that time, and despite a long injury layoff last season, Wheeler collected 90 more innings than Skubal.

Wheeler is going to be an interesting Hall of Fame candidate. An early two season injury meant he didn’t come into his own until seasonal age 28. In his 30s, when most pitchers wane, Wheeler put up fantastic numbers, so far accumulating 35.2 rWAR in 6 1/2 seasons. His career rWAR stands at 44.3. Three more years of five WAR seasons would put him at 60, so he’s going to need a Nolan Ryan type late surge to assure a Hall election. If not, we’ll see if voters were willing to extrapolate backwards to give him a nod.

Enjoy!

July 12, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Every time the Giants play the Rockies the leaderboard for Log5 is dominated by Giants hitters. That’s due to the Giants owning the highest hit average in the majors, .234, and the Rockies pitchers owning the highest opposition hit average in the majors, .255. The MLB hit average is currently .216. It’s a perfect storm of hits when these teams meet.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.362, 0.759 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.342, 0.728 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.308, 0.720 — Ernie Clement batting at German Marquez.
  • 0.271, 0.704 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Robert Gasser.
  • 0.281, 0.704 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Joey Cantillo.
  • 0.319, 0.699 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.
  • 0.290, 0.696 — Michael Harris II batting at Dustin May.
  • 0.262, 0.691 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
  • 0.285, 0.690 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Will Warren.
  • 0.311, 0.689 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Michael Lorenzen.

Arraez collected five hits in 10 PA against Lorenzen in their careers with one strikeout. Lee went two for five with no walks and no Ks. So the unanimous double down seems like a good one today.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 12, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Junior Caminero of the Rays took over the top slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, producing a double and two walks in a 6-1 win over the Mariners. His teammate, Jonathan Aranda ranks third after a three f four with two doubles. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs dropped to second place, drawing two walks in five PA in a 5-3 win over the Reds. His OBP stands at .383.

Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted the second highest game score of the day, a 75, returning to the top five in fourth place. He doubled, homered, and drew two walks in a 9-3 win over the first place Rangers. Alvarez is now tied for the AL lead in hits with 109, leads in home runs with 31, extra-base hits with 48, total bases with 219, RBI with 70, OBP with .422, and slugging percentage with .633.

Otto Lopez of the Marlins rounds out the the five after drawing a walk in a 4-1 Guardians win. That drops his BA to .339, and his NL lead over Luis Arraez in the category is down to seven points.

Esmerlyn Valdez of the Pirates produced the highest game score of the day in game one of the doubleheader against the Brewers. His three for four with two homers and six RBI totaled to an 82. He also homered in game two, giving him homers in three straight games. He is 100 PA into his career, and anything can happen in that small sample size, but he does own the highest slugging percentage this season for anyone with at least 100 PA. His numbers are a bit more amazing considering he struck out 36 times. His BABIP stands at .400.

July 12, 2026

July 11, 2026

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, It’s Magic

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Esmerlyn Valdez of the Pirates swung his magic wand on Saturday and delivered three home runs in a doubleheader sweep of the Brewers. That gives him ten home runs in 100 MLB plate appearances in his first season. He owns a .311/.370/.722 slash line with 16 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. He also homered Thursday, giving him homers in three straight games.

The Pirates move to two games over .500 and just three games out of the wild card slot.

July 11, 2026

July 11, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Mariners try to stop their slide as they send Logan Gilbert against the Rays and Griffin Jax. Gilbert seems like he should own a better career ERA than 3.53. His strikeout rate is good, his walk rate is great, and his home run rate is okay. He limits hits. He simply pitches worse with men on base, enough to take him out of elite territory. He’s been especially bad with less than two out and a runner on third base. According to MLB, Jax induced nine double plays in 45 opportunities. My calculation has the nine in 54 opportunities. It seems that MLB is not counting walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts as opportunities, which strikes me as wrong.

Cristopher Sanchez tries to recover from his prior poor outing as he and the Phillies square off against the Tigers and Casey Mize. Sanchez Sanchez reached 10 wins for the third season in a row, and needs just four more win for a new single season high of 14. The Tigers seem to have turned their season around, 22-12 since June 1st, with only the Marlins (26-9) and the Brewers (24-13) better. Mize during that stretch owns a 3.38 ERA with great walk numbers.

Enjoy!

July 11, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It’s another ridiculous day for the Giants as they face another Rockies pitcher that is easily pounded. His is a lefty, however, and Arraez only faced him three times, collecting one hit. Schmitt is three for eight against Freeland, and Ramos stands 6 for 16.

Note that the Brewers and Pirates play a doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.380, 0.770 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.363, 0.745 — Jung Hoo Lee batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.338, 0.714 — Casey Schmitt batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.285, 0.713 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Shane Drohan.
  • 0.290, 0.712 — Otto Lopez batting vs. Tanner Bibee.
  • 0.303, 0.712 — Ernie Clement batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.276, 0.708 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Brandon Sproat.
  • 0.308, 0.708 — Michael Harris II batting at Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.329, 0.704 — Heliot Ramos batting vs. Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.279, 0.693 — Jeremy Pena batting at Kumar Rocker.

The two systems agree on the top three, or you could just double down with Mangum!

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!