Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft structures Part 10: Composite certification.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 17, 2026, ©. Leeham News: We resume our series on aircraft structures and how they have shaped the way our airliners transport passengers around the world today.
We looked at the composite matrix types last week and how they determine much of the manufacturing and joining procedures used to produce parts and aggregate them into part assemblies.
Composite structures are defined by the fibers, the matrix, and how these are fabricated and joined with other parts.
To certify an aircraft with composite parts, the regulator must therefore request that all factors influencing a composite’s strength and safety be managed under strict specifications and processes. It all needs to be part of a certified material system, where the system represents all three components: fiber, matrix, and production method.
Figure 1. Carbon composite test coupons that have been strained and compressed to failure. Source: University of Surrey report.
Q2 2026 earnings: GE Aerospace keeps the beat despite a few missed notes
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By Chris Sloan
July 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Even in the face of the conflict in Iran, GE Aerospace delivered an upside surprise: raising its full-year guidance based on strong commercial execution, rocketing aftermarket demand, higher engine deliveries, and improving MRO shop capacity.
The company also reported progress on the durability front, as it achieved extended engine time-on-wing while reducing turnaround times, underscoring continued improvement in CFM LEAP fleet reliability as it works through a backlog exceeding $210 billion. Profit margins took a hit, decreasing 130 basis points to 21.7% attributed to higher installed engine deliveries, investments (such as production ramps on the GE9X for the forthcoming 777-9), and inflation. The engine maker said this was expected, laying out plans to address the drop.
Chief executive Larry Culp described the period as “another quarter of significant growth, driven by robust commercial services” during the company’s second-quarter earnings call. He pointed to first-half engine deliveries that increased 31%, including a 41% jump in LEAP deliveries, while highlighting Copa Airlines’ selection of up to 120 LEAP-1B engines for up to 60 additional Boeing 737 MAXs. He also touted certification of the 1B durability kit, including the upgraded high-pressure turbine blade, which is expected to deliver roughly double the time on wing when it enters service early next year. Turnaround times for LEAP shop visits have fallen to about 100 days, down more than two weeks from a year ago, while the number of LEAP-powered aircraft grounded because of engine availability has fallen to nearly none. This is a significant advantage over the competing Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan (GTF) engines.
Rahul Ghai, GE Aerospace’s chief financial officer, told analysts that demand remains robust and production continues to improve. The company raised its outlook for LEAP deliveries to high-teens growth this year, up from the previous forecast of 15%, while widebody engine deliveries increased 30% in the quarter, led by significantly higher GEnX shipments, supporting the ramp-up of Boeing 787 deliveries. GE Aerospace slipped in that it received a $100 million tariff refund during the quarter but characterized the payment as “not extremely material” to the company’s overall financial performance.
Much-delayed 737 Max 7 certification looms as Boeing’s commercial programs advance
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By Howard Hardee
July 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Boeing is finally nearing the finish line on securing type certification of its much-delayed 737 Max 7, which the airframer had long-ago believed would enter service prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Company executives briefed reporters regarding certification progress on the Max 7, Max 10 and 777-9 programs during a media tour in Everett, Washington earlier this month. The Max 7, the smallest variant in Boeing’s latest generation narrowbody lineup, is poised to become the first among the trio of airliners to clear certification with the Federal Aviation Administration.
Chris Payne, Boeing’s program manager of 737 commercial derivatives, said the company is “95% complete with all our certification deliverables” on the Max 7 program.
“We’ve got a few more deliverables that we are working with the regulator,” he said. “Certification flight testing, we’ve been done for a while; 100% complete.”
Chris Payne briefs reporters on 737 Max 7 and 10 certification in early July. Jennifer Buchanan/Seattle Times/Pool
Boeing has completed a total of 686 flight-test hours with the FAA across 441 flights, on top of 349 ground test hours, with the Max 7.
According to Boeing’s specifications, the Max 7 will have the longest range in the family at about 3,800nm, and can be configured with 135-160 seats.
Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that certification of the Max 7 is imminent—potentially before the end of July. Boeing would certainly like to make a splash with such an announcement before or during Farnborough Air Show, though when exactly the certificate is issued is in the hands of the FAA.
The Max 7 will be assembled at Boeing’s primary 737 production facility in Renton. The newly opened North Line in Everett does not have the tooling required to assemble the smallest member of the Max family. The jet’s primary customer is Southwest Airlines, which has been waiting eagerly for the type for several years.
Boeing’s commercial chief leaves door open for RISE engine concept
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By Howard Hardee
July 16, 2026, © Leeham News: There is a prevailing view within the aerospace industry that Boeing is skeptical of CFM International’s RISE open-fan engine concept, but Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and CEO Stephanie Pope says that the airframer has not definitively ruled out such an engine architecture for its next clean-sheet aircraft design.
Airbus has partnered with CFM International, the French-U.S. joint venture between Safran and GE Aerospace, to explore potential future applications of an open-fan engine concept. Boeing, on the other hand, has generally signaled a preference for a lower-risk propulsion approach for the eventual successor to the 737 Max family.
But the commercial sector finds itself stuck in a holding pattern: Engine makers are pursuing multiple development pathways and waiting for clarity on the next single-aisle aircraft platforms, while airframers are working through huge order backlogs and waiting for engine technology to mature before launching their next clean-sheet designs. Nobody is making a big move in the meantime.
Propulsion’s place in the equation will likely make it a major theme at the Farnborough International Airshow next week. Much of the discussion will center on RISE, a program that CFM touts as a potential game-changer for commercial airliners. The engine design features a single row of variable-pitch rotating fan blades, unconstrained by an engine nacelle. Positioned behind the fan, non-rotating vanes smooth out swirling airflow and improve propulsive efficiency.
Shedding nacelles is an idea that dates back to the 1970s, with aerospace engineers long understanding the potential of a high-bypass design. Photo credit: CFM International
While RISE could provide significant efficiency gains relative to current-generation turbofans, such as CFM’s Leap and Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan (GTF) engines, notable technical hurdles must be addressed before open-fan engines are considered commercially viable. Specifically, blade-out failures could pierce the passenger cabin, though GE has emphasized that composite fan blades have never been involved in such an incident.
Guarding against blade-out events by armoring the fuselage would add weight to the airframe, potentially offsetting the greater fuel efficiency provided by the engines themselves. GE says that these technical hurdles can be overcome.
Boeing, meanwhile, has largely observed from the sidelines, seeming lukewarm on the radical design.
BCA riding fresh momentum into Farnborough air show
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By Howard Hardee
July 16, 2026, © Leeham News: Since succeeding Stan Deal as head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) in March 2024, Stephanie Pope has been tasked with steadying the airframer’s long-beleaguered aircraft production system and expanding factory capacity in a bid to regain single-aisle market share ceded to Airbus.
But ramping up production of the 737 Max program has been far from straightforward. Following the industry-shaking mid-flight blow-out of an exit door plug on an Alaska Airlines-operated 737 Max 9 in January 2024, Boeing’s narrowbody output has been constrained by a series of incrementally raised Federal Aviation Administration-mandated production caps. Meanwhile, increased scrutiny from the FAA and a series of technical issues—including with the 737 Max’s engine anti-icing system—contributed to severe delays in certification of the Max 7 and Max 10 variants.
Boeing is pushing for the long-awaited certification of the 737 Max 7, which will be followed shortly by the most-stretched variant, the Max 10. (Photo credit: Boeing)
As the highest-capacity variant of Boeing’s flagship narrowbody family, the Max 10 is viewed as especially critical to Boeing’s market recovery. The relatively low-selling Max 7, the smallest jet in the family, is unlikely to move the needle to the same extent but is still considered an important part of Boeing’s latest-generation narrowbody lineup.
Heading into the Farnborough International Airshow next week, momentum finally appears to be in BCA’s favor. The FAA has increased Boeing’s monthly 737 production cap to 47 jets from 42, and Max production is slowly ramping up at the airframer’s newly established North Line in Everett, Washington. Company executives also say the engine anti-icing issue has been resolved, clearing the way for certification of the Max 7.
“I’m really proud of the progress our team has made,” Pope said. “The team continues to see positive momentum in restoring trust with our customers, our regulators and our suppliers.”
Pratt & Whitney betting next-generation narrowbody will be powered by turbofan
By Scott Hamilton
July 16, 2026, © Leeham News/AIN: The president of Pratt & Whitney’s commercial engine unit is adamant that the engine powering the successor airplanes to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families will be a turbofan, not an open fan engine.
Rick Deurloo’s position is hardly surprising. P&W is developing the NextGen2 Geared Turbo Fan (GTF) engine, which is not an open fan architecture like rival GE Aerospace is pursuing.
But Deurloo believes competitors are quietly validating P&W’s strategy: Rolls-Royce is also developing a geared turbofan engine, the Ultra Fan, and GE has a turbofan alternative to the open fan under development.
Further, Deurloo says that Boeing remains skeptical of the open fan. Boeing’s fears are centered on the risk of a fan blade separating in flight. Without a cowling or shroud, the blade could penetrate the passenger cabin. GE says there has never been a composite fan blade separation from a jet engine, but that does not mean it is impossible.
GE acknowledges that aircraft fuselages will have to be strengthened as a precaution against blade separation.
The open rotor engine of the 1980s, known as the Unducted Fan, was not pursued when fuel prices fell. There were also noise, maintenance, and cruising speed concerns.
In a media briefing this month ahead of the Farnborough air show later this month, Deurloo noted that P&W has its own history of developing an unducted fan, known as the open rotor. This research gained traction in the 1980s, when GE and P&W installed unducted fan engines on a Boeing 727-100 and a McDonnell Douglas MD-80, respectively. Fuel prices rose sharply as the studies accelerated. When prices fell dramatically, the impetus for such engines evaporated.
Noise, safety, and maintenance concerns also contributed to the open rotor’s rejection at the time. GE says each of these has been resolved as it develops an open fan architecture with its RISE program. GE says that engine will be ready for entry into service by 2035, although others believe it will begin powering next-generation airliners much later.
Pratt & Whitney expands MROs in push to resolve geared turbofan issues
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2026, © Leeham News/AIN: Ten years into the seemingly endless technical issues with its Geared TurboFan (GTF) engine, maker Pratt & Whitney’s investments in expanding MRO facilities is a critical component of fixing the engines.
Pratt & Whitney has been dealing with technical and production issues with its GTF engine for a decade. A few more years will pass before it’s over. Credit: Pratt & Whitney.
P&W has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in building, expanding, and licensing Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities to fix durability problems with key engine components that have plagued the GTF, primarily on the Airbus A320neo family. Similar problems emerged on the Airbus A220 and Embraer E195-E2, which use a smaller version of the GTF that powers the A320s.
The latest upset was powdered metal used in production that was contaminated at the supplier level.
At the peak, around 650 A320neos powered by the GTF were grounded. P&W shares neo engines with the CFM LEAP, which has had its own, lower-impact durability issues.
Scott Kreamer, P&W’s vice president of the PW1500G engine program that powers the A220 and E2, told reporters during an Airbus briefing last month that all affected A220s will be in service by the end of this year. Embraer, in its own briefing with reporters, said the E2 fleet is back to normal.
LNA was told by an A320neo operator that the PW1100G will likely remain an issue for another two or three years. Rick Deurloo, the president of P&W’s commercial engines unit, declined to confirm a timeline during a briefing on July 1.
JetZero’s changed Z4 BWB, Part 3: the business plan
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By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2026, © Leeham News: After analyzing JetZero’s updated Z4 blended wing-body (BWB) to extract performance data and then develop operational fuel consumption and cash operating cost last week, we now use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to develop a business plan for the updated Z4, which we refer to as the Z4U.
A business plan requires that we estimate the development and production costs for the Z4U and then compare these to the net revenue at aircraft delivery to generate the payback time for the program at different net price curves.
Figure 1. The updated JetZero in a tanker configuration. Source: JetZero.
Though we have over 10 years of experience analyzing new aircraft programs using the APCM, we are not aiming for a 100% accurate analysis of the Z4U program, but to better understand the economics of the program and if JetZero’s published estimates for development time and Entry Into Service (EIS) are reasonable.
Boeing’s new North Line eases into 737 Max production
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By Howard Hardee
July 10, 2026, © Leeham News: In a cavernous space designed for building much larger aircraft, a pair of narrowbody fuselages are moving slowly through Boeing’s much-anticipated North Line in Everett, Washington, marking what the company hails as a new era for 737 Max production.
The two 737 Max 10s are the first of Boeing’s flagship single-aisle family to be produced outside the company’s production facility in Renton — located about 40 miles south of Everett along the Interstate 5 corridor — since 737 production was consolidated there in 1970.
In the early days of Boeing’s low-rate initial production plan, the new line is months away from reaching full capacity. But the company view it as critical for its ongoing financial turnaround and strategy to regain market share from Airbus’ strong-selling A320neo family of single-aisle airliners.
Having secured approval from the Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing is transitioning to a monthly production rate of 47 737s rolling off all four lines — three in Renton and one in Everett — after recently reaching a rate of 42 new 737s per month. With the additional capacity provided by the North Line, Boeing will eventually step up to rate 52.
That level of 737 production would carry special significance, as it would match Boeing’s highest production rate before the 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019, which killed a combined 346 people and grounded the global 737 Max fleet. The company’s recovery has been long, painful and nonlinear, with the January 2024 door-plug blow-out on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 flying from Portland to Southern California prompting a fresh round of soul-searching and an accelerated C-suite shake-up that culminated with the installation of Kelly Ortberg as chief executive of Boeing.
The second 737 Max 10 fuselage, freshly delivered from Wichita via rail transport, being towed by Boeing workers into the company’s Everett-based North Line. Photo by Jennifer Buchanan/Seattle Times/Pool.
Reporters toured the North Line shortly after the first 737 Max 10 fuselage was loaded on July 6, with company executives touting the $1 billion investment to repurpose the production facility and expand the Everett site’s workforce with Renton-trained mechanics and other employees. They say the moves will contribute to Boeing’s positive momentum as it attempts to finally secure certification of the Max 7 and Max 10 variants of the 737 family and begin working through a backlog of more than 4,800 unfilled orders for the single-aisle jets.
Opening the fourth 737 production line is strategically important for Boeing. There is also hope that it marks a meaningful turning point in the company’s history.
“A couple of years ago, this was the 787 [production line], and this is the first time the 737 is being built in Everett,” said Jennifer Boland-Masterson, Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ senior director of the North Line. “Think about that; it’s pretty historic.”
Rise of ‘thin’ routes and aging fleets drive Airbus’ long-term market forecast
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By Charles Alcock
July 10, 2026, © Leeham News: A combination of airlines’ desire to expand their networks with longer, thinner routes connecting smaller cities and a growing need to replace aging aircraft were key factors behind rising demand identified in the latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) released by Airbus on July 8. Between 2026 and 2045, the European airframer is now predicting 42,060 new passenger airliner deliveries in response to a projected two-fold increase in revenue passenger kilometers to 21.3 trillion.
Notably, this year’s 20-year forecast for global aircraft demand represents a slightly lower estimate than the one provided in Airbus’ forecast last year, which predicted 43,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries from 2025 to 2044.
Presenting this year’s GMF update to reporters in London, Antonio da Costa, Airbus’ vice president for market analysis and forecast, highlighted flight demand foundations such as rising personal wealth in Asia, Africa and Latin America. He pointed to anticipated growth in yearly flights per capita in countries including Nigeria, Egypt, India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, China and South Korea.
Part of this demand curve comes from people living and working outside their home country to make trips home to visit friends and relatives. This trend, Da Costa explained, is partly responsible for the expansion of direct air services between smaller cities, allowing passengers to avoid connections in mega hubs.
