ASK THE EXPERT | HOW DO YOU PLAN AGAINST BIG HOLIDAY COMPS?

Question:
“My spring season has been great so far, but I’m already thinking ahead to fall. Last year we saw huge gains, and I’m nervous about going up against those numbers. What’s your advice for planning against big comps?”

Answer: You’re not alone. A lot of retailers are looking at last fall’s numbers and wondering how they’re supposed to repeat that performance.

The first thing to remember is this: not all sales spikes are true growth trends.

Last fall was unusual for many stores because product arrived earlier than normal. In many cases, merchants pushed fall receipts into July to avoid potential tariff increases, which meant customers saw fresh fall product much earlier than usual. That created a temporary surge in business that may not reflect normal demand patterns.

This is exactly the kind of situation professional inventory planners prepare for months in advance.

When planning against large comps, we start by asking a few important questions:

• How has the business trended over the last 30–60 days?
• What percentage of annual sales came from recent months?
• Is momentum building, flattening, or slowing?
• Most importantly: why?

Understanding the “why” behind the numbers matters just as much as the numbers themselves.

We also look closely at what drove last year’s increase. Was it broad-based growth, or was it driven by a handful of expensive items or one-time purchases? If a small number of transactions created the spike, it may not represent a sustainable trend.

As planners, we started evaluating last July’s surge back in August so we could help clients prepare early for this fall. Since then, we’ve continued adjusting forecasts and inventory flow month by month based on real-time performance.

For retailers planning now, the best thing you can do is focus on your current trend line. Your last 60 days will usually tell you far more about the upcoming season than one unusual period from last year.

And if last year’s early fall deliveries worked well for your business, we hope that you already made moves to strategically land key goods early again, but in a disciplined way.

Big comps can feel intimidating, but they’re manageable when you separate true trends from temporary anomalies and plan accordingly.

If you’d like help forecasting your fall business and building a smarter inventory strategy, we’d be happy to take a closer look with you.