Airbus has projected continued long-term growth in global air travel demand, forecasting the need for 42,060 new passenger and freighter aircraft between 2026 and 2045, driven by urbanisation, economic growth and an expanding global middle class.
The outlook, published in the company’s 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast (GMF), estimates that global passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 3.9 per cent over the next two decades, supported by 2.6 per cent GDP growth, an increase of 1.3 billion urban residents, and the addition of 1.4 billion middle-class consumers, the demographic most likely to travel by air.
According to Airbus, global air traffic is expected to more than double by 2045, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers annually.
The forecast highlights a shift in urbanisation towards smaller cities, creating demand for new city-pair connections as more efficient aircraft make routes commercially viable. Airbus noted that aircraft such as the A220 and A321neo are enabling direct services between destinations that previously could not support nonstop operations, while longer-range aircraft, including the A321XLR, A330neo and A350, are opening new long-haul routes.
The company also expects aviation networks to become increasingly decentralised as connectivity expands beyond traditional hub-to-hub routes. Examples cited include Riga-Tenerife, Melbourne-Alice Springs, Lisbon-Recife, Dublin-Nashville, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur and Taipei-Phoenix.
Airbus said the evolving market demand is reflected in its current order backlog of around 9,000 aircraft. More than 70 per cent of the backlog for the A320 Family comprises the larger A321neo and A321XLR, which the manufacturer said are particularly suited to serving emerging city pairs.
The forecast also points to the continued shift in global aviation demand towards the Asia-Pacific region, driven by strong economic growth in countries including India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. Airbus noted that increasing international migration and growth in visiting friends and relatives (VFR) travel are contributing to changing traffic patterns.
Of the 42,060 aircraft expected to be delivered over the next 20 years, 22,240 will be required to support traffic growth, while 19,820 will replace older aircraft. Airbus estimates that 81 per cent of deliveries will comprise single-aisle aircraft, with the remaining 19 per cent being widebody aircraft.
The company said fleet renewal will remain a major driver of aircraft demand as airlines replace ageing fleets with more fuel-efficient and lower-emission aircraft. According to the forecast, the share of next-generation aircraft in the global fleet is expected to increase from around 39 per cent in 2026 to nearly 100 per cent by 2045.
