Despite geopolitical uncertainty and oil price volatility, announced upstream M&A reached $74.3 billion in the first quarter, driven by the Devon-Coterra merger. Q2 has started with a bang as Shell agrees to buy Canadian shale gas player Arc Resources.

The Mideast Gulf war and LNG market disruption inspired this month’s focus on corporate gas and LNG strategy. Once again, players are encountering both a windfall and strategic questions about spending it. Our analysis shows consistent strategies forged following the 2021-22 market upheaval and validated by the current crisis. We are also focusing on upstream positioning, along with growth and backfill strategies in critical hotspots. Finally, we examine notable advancing pre-FID LNG ventures using our Project Development Risk Framework to assess relative risk for several key players.

As part of Energy Intelligence conversations with C-suite, executive-level and government leaders, we see BP entering 2026 at an inflection point — a company with world-class capabilities and a storied legacy, yet still struggling to find strategic equilibrium. The arrival of Meg O’Neill as CEO will begin to answer questions about how BP will define this next phase of its 117-year history.

Competitive Intelligence Research has updated 2026 Guidance data for companies under coverage. The updated Excel-based report provides near and medium-term production and capital expenditure plans, as well as upstream, exploration and low-carbon spending details as available.

Energy Intelligence’s proprietary AI Initiative Tracker captures activity of 50 major oil and gas companies since 2023. This update highlights developments since our initial October 2025 report. The upward trend of energy companies announcing AI initiatives continues, with firms interacting with AI in four main ways: integrating AI into their businesses; supplying energy for AI; investing in AI companies; and partnering with AI companies to offer services to other energy players. Three main regional centers of AI use are emerging – North America, Europe and the Mideast Gulf – while NOCs as a peer group are embracing AI the fastest.

The emission monitor provides detailed reported emissions data and emissions reduction targets for key oil and gas operating companies, covering both IOCs and NOCs. It is updated twice a year.

An updated dataset for the Emissions Monitor is now available. The Excel-based report provides detailed reported emissions data and emissions reduction targets for key oil and gas operating companies, covering both IOCs and NOCs. Included in this update: Scope 1+2 Total GHG Emissions data, Upstream Operational GHG Intensity data, Scope 3 End-Use GHG Emissions data, Total Operational Methane Emissions, Methane Emissions Intensity, and key Company Emissions Targets.

The latest update to the Emissions Monitor reflects a full performance benchmarking for FY2024, with data from a total of 43 oil and gas companies. Methane performance continues to improve markedly year-on-year across all peer groups, while operated emissions performance (Scope 1 and 2) is mixed. Upstream emissions intensity, however, continues to decline, suggesting that companies are learning to produce more hydrocarbons with a lower per-unit carbon footprint. This update also adds six independent E&Ps and three state firms to coverage: Antero Resources, Devon Energy, Coterra Energy (to be acquired by Devon), Murphy Oil, Galp Energia, Tullow Oil, YPF, KMG and OQ.

The upstream sector shrugged off energy price volatility and macroeconomic headwinds to carry out $42 billion in deals in the last quarter of 2025, pushing annual deal flow to $108 billion. SM Energy’s acquisition of Civitas Resources for $12.8 billion was the top deal of the quarter, but Devon Energy’s acquisition of Coterra Energy for $58 billion in February sets the stage for 2026 deals. We expect oil price volatility to weigh on asset valuations, with the industry possibly pursuing merger-of-equal deal options and gas-weighted transactions in the shale patch. International exploration deals look exciting in 2026, with frontier play transactions in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa and new conventional acreage awards in the Middle East and North Africa on our radar.

Despite weaker oil prices and macro headwinds, new exploration offerings and direct government negotiations have markedly increased in the past six months. Numerous countries have advanced bid rounds and direct deals as select upstream companies refocus on exploration and acquisition of organic growth options. The most licensing action is in Asia and Africa, but smaller producers are also hoping to take advantage of the uptick in investor interest by launching new opportunities.