Research article

30 Jun 2026

Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming

Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 913–928, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026, 2026

Short summary

29 Jun 2026

Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO₂-emissions driven Earth System models

Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 893–911, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026, 2026

Short summary

29 Jun 2026

| Highlight paper

Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance

Kyriaki Bimpiri, Thomas Hocking, and Thorsten Mauritsen

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 877–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-877-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-877-2026, 2026

Short summary Editorial statement

26 Jun 2026

Regional impacts of irrigation on the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle of the Iberian Peninsula in a climate model

Pierre Tiengou, Agnès Ducharne, and Frédérique Cheruy

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 843–876, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-843-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-843-2026, 2026

Short summary

25 Jun 2026

On combining climate models into weighted ensembles

Britta Grusdt, Mahé Perrette, and Alexander Robinson

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2320,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2320, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Short summary

24 Jun 2026

The Strategic Dynamics of the Anthropocene: Bridging Social Dilemma Games and Empirical CO₂ Emissions with Probabilistic Programming

Ali Banihashemi, Hugo Storm, and Wolfram Barfuss

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2263,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2263, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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24 Jun 2026

Climate and Carbon Cycle Responses to a 21st century AMOC Collapse under a 2 °C Stabilization Pathway

Thomas L. Frölicher, Patrick Maier, Friedrich A. Burger, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Urs Hofmann Elizondo, and Manon Berger

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3065,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3065, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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23 Jun 2026

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years

Patric J. L. Boardman, Joseph Clarke, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, Chris D. Jones, and Mark S. Williamson

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 829–841, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-829-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-829-2026, 2026

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23 Jun 2026

Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue–green water partitioning

Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Anna M. Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, and Peter Greve

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 811–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-811-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-811-2026, 2026

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19 Jun 2026

| Highlight paper

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse

Kolja Kypke, Marisa Montoya, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, and Peter Ditlevsen

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 769–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-769-2026, 2026

Short summary Editorial statement

19 Jun 2026

Assessing the impact of the Human Development Index on historical trends in the INFERNO fire model

João C. M. Teixeira, Chantelle Burton, Douglas I. Kelley, Gerd A. Folberth, Fiona M. O'Connor, Richard A. Betts, and Apostolos Voulgarakis

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 739–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-739-2026, 2026

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19 Jun 2026

Deep learning-based chlorophyll prediction: comparison with a dynamic model and applications to fish catch forecasting

Ji-Sook Park, Jong-Yeon Park, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim, and Woo Jin Jeon

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 795–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-795-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-795-2026, 2026

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16 Jun 2026

Comparing the seasonal predictability of the Tropical Pacific variability in EC-Earth3 at two horizontal resolutions

Aude Carréric, Pablo Ortega, Roberto Bilbao, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Vladimir Lapin, Ferran Lopez-Marti, Markus Donat, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 717–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-717-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-717-2026, 2026

Short summary

12 Jun 2026

| Highlight paper

Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network

Tobias Braun, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Norbert Marwan, Juergen Kurths, Johannes Quaas, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Luis Gimeno, and Miguel D. Mahecha

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 695–716, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-695-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-695-2026, 2026

Short summary Editorial statement

11 Jun 2026

Contrasting Detection and Attribution of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Western Mediterranean from CMIP6 DAMIP Experiments

Diego Campos, Matías Olmo, Pep Cos, Margarida Samsó, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2830,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2830, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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05 Jun 2026

Ensemble-based global fire modeling as a tool to characterize extreme wildfire events

Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Maik Biling, Kirsten Thonicke, Werner von Bloh, Jakob Wessel, Sabine Undorf, Matthias Forkel, and Jakob Zscheischler

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2952, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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03 Jun 2026

Potential natural vegetation as overlooked determinant of land-use change flux estimates

Adrian I. R. Jäschke, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Amali A. Amali, Julia Pongratz, and Raphael Ganzenmüller

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2682,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2682, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

Short summary

01 Jun 2026

Attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100

Tereza Jarníková, Colin Jones, Steven Rumbold, and Corinne Le Quéré

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 631–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-631-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-631-2026, 2026

Short summary

01 Jun 2026

Improving terrestrial carbon flux simulations with machine learning and global Earth observations

Christian Seiler

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 651–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-651-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-651-2026, 2026

Short summary

01 Jun 2026

Quantifying resilience in non-autonomous and stochastic Earth system dynamics with application to glacial-interglacial cycles

Jakob Harteg, Nico Wunderling, and Jonathan F. Donges

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 673–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-673-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-673-2026, 2026

Short summary

27 May 2026

Advancing the Scenario-to-Climate Link with Spatial Emulators in the FASTMIP Pilot Experiment

Michael Gregory Windisch, Yann Quilcaille, Camilla Mathison, Claudia Tebaldi, Eleanor Burke, Laila Gohar, Chris Smith, Sarah Schöngart, Abigail Snyder, Siddarth Durga, Kalyn Dorheim, and Sonia Seneviratne

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2253, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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22 May 2026

Assessing the performance of LPJmL-5 in simulating vegetation responses to normal and multi-year droughts

Denise Ruijsch, Sandra Margrit Hauswirth, Hester Biemans, and Niko Wanders

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 607–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-607-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-607-2026, 2026

Short summary

21 May 2026

Projected elevation-dependent warming in the Alps: contrasting free-atmosphere and surface trends with surface energy balance drivers

Ian Castellanos, Martin Ménégoz, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Hubert Gallée, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Chantal Staquet, and Xavier Fettweis

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 581–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-581-2026, 2026

Short summary

20 May 2026

Global and Regional Hydroclimatic Responses to Alternative Global Reforestation Pathways

Marzieh Mortezapour, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, and Christine Leclerc

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2620,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2620, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

Short summary

19 May 2026

Decomposition of the Zero Emissions Commitment into thermal warming pipeline and carbon buffering components

Benjamin M. Sanderson, Marit Sandstad, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Stuart Jenkins, Charles Koven, Glen Peters, Roland Séfèrian, Andrew H. MacDougall, Ashwin Seshadri, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Abigail L. S. Swann, Torben Koenigk, Rosie A. Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris D. Jones, Hongmei Li, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Nadine Mengis, Anastasia Romanou, Lori T. Sentman, Chris Smith, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1875, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Short summary

13 May 2026

Everyday weather in a warmer world

Rhidian Huw Thomas, Gilbert P. Compo, Steve George, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Andrew Schurer, Theodore G. Shepherd, Laura C. Slivinski, Vikki Thompson, and Ed Hawkins

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2548, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)

Short summary

12 May 2026

Detecting transitions and quantifying differences in two SST datasets using spatial permutation entropy

Juan Gancio, Giulio Tirabassi, Cristina Masoller, and Marcelo Barreiro

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 533–561, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-533-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-533-2026, 2026

Short summary

12 May 2026

Equation discovery for climate impact: emulating impact models for unexplored climate scenario with interpretable symbolic regression

Erwan Le Roux, Pierre Tandeo, Carlos Granero Belinchon, Melika Baklouti, Julien Le Sommer, Florence Sevault, Samuel Somot, Antoine Doury, and Mahmoud Al Najar

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1991,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1991, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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12 May 2026

Critical freshwater forcing for AMOC tipping in climate models – compensation matters

Oliver Mehling, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 563–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-563-2026, 2026

Short summary

08 May 2026

Hot extremes following net-zero CO₂ emissions in UKESM: physical drivers and role of vegetation

Andrea Rivosecchi, Andrea Dittus, Ed Hawkins, Reinhard Schiemann, and Erich Fischer

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1733,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1733, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)

Short summary

06 May 2026

| Highlight paper

Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024

Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Brian F. Bennett, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, and Ross J. Salawitch

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-451-2026, 2026

Short summary Editorial statement

06 May 2026

Response of ice sheets, sea-ice and sea level in climate stabilisation and reversibility simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model

Robin S. Smith, Tarkan A. Bilge, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Paul R. Holland, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Spencer Liddicoat, Tom Mitcham, Jane Mulcahy, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Andrew Orr, Julien Palmieri, Antony J. Payne, Steven Rumbold, Marc Stringer, Ranjini Swaminathan, Sarah Taylor, Jeremy Walton, and Colin Jones

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 475–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-475-2026, 2026

Short summary

04 May 2026

From Paper to Proof: Revealing Congo Basin Warming Through Rescued Climate Archives

Derrick Muheki, Koen Hufkens, Kim Jacobsen, Hans Verbeeck, Pascal Boeckx, Dominique Kankonde Ntumba, Olivier Kapalay Moulasa, Bas Vercruysse, Julie M. Birkholz, Christophe Verbruggen, Ed Hawkins, Seppe Lampe, Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu, Fils Makanzu Imwangana, José Mbifo, Théophile Besango Likwela, Félicien Meunier, Olivier Dewitte, Peter Thorne, and Wim Thiery

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2107, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

Short summary

04 May 2026

Future learning and uncertainty reductions in projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica

Zach Zerbe, Sanket Jantre, Nathan M. Urban, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Trevor Hillebrand

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1585,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1585, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)

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29 Apr 2026

Global-scale drought propagation and the drivers and patterns of multi-year groundwater drought

Saskia Salwey, Sandra Hauswirth, Denise Ruijsch, Barry van Jaarsveld, Jonna van Mourik, and Niko Wanders

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2335,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2335, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 2 comments)

Short summary

27 Apr 2026

Present and future responses of near-surface wind speed to different land-use and land-cover types in China

Hui-Shuang Yuan, Yang Xu, Zhi-Da Sun, Zi-Han Wang, Youli Chang, and Cheng Shen

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1947,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1947, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

Short summary

22 Apr 2026

| Highlight paper

Stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering has the potential to increase land carbon storage and to protect the Amazon rainforest

Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Olivier Boucher, Peter M. Cox, James M. Haywood, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 387–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-387-2026, 2026

Short summary Editorial statement

16 Apr 2026

The global climate response to High-Latitude Low-Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI)

Alistair Duffey, Walker Lee, Lauren Wheeler, Peter Irvine, Benjamin Wagman, Matthew Henry, Daniele Visioni, Michel Tsamados, and Douglas MacMartin

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 353–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-353-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-353-2026, 2026

Short summary

15 Apr 2026

A risk assessment framework for interacting tipping elements

Jacques Bara, Nico Wunderling, and Wolfram Barfuss

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 333–352, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-333-2026, 2026

Short summary

14 Apr 2026

Amplification of ENSO-driven vegetation variability at decadal and longer timescales

Nora L. S. Fahrenbach and Robert C. Jnglin Wills

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1961,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1961, 2026

Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

Short summary

13 Apr 2026

Combining different views on internal climate variability of temperature over Europe

Herijaona Hani-Roge Hundilida Randriatsara, Eva Holtanová, and Jiří Mikšovský

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1341,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1341, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)

Short summary

10 Apr 2026

Energetics of monsoons and deserts: role of surface albedo vs water vapor feedback

Chetankumar Jalihal and Uwe Mikolajewicz

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-319-2026, 2026

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08 Apr 2026

Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative CO₂ emissions across Earth system models

Abigail L. S. Swann, Charles D. Koven, Cristian Proistosecu, Rosie A. Fisher, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Nancy Y. Kiang, David M. Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Hannah Liddy, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Lori T. Sentman, Norman J. Steinert, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1673, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

Short summary

02 Apr 2026

The humidity paradox: how drier conditions and fewer clouds amplify terrestrial warming due to global climate change

Paul Glantz, Kevin James Noone, Abhay Devasthale, and Frederik Schenk

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1654,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1654, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)

Short summary

30 Mar 2026

Earth system models might overestimate the local plant productivity response to temperature–moisture extremes

Moritz Adam, Elisa Ziegler, Björn Gonzalez, Nils Weitzel, and Kira Rehfeld

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-626,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-626, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)

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30 Mar 2026

Drivers of reduced permafrost cooling efficacy of equatorial stratospheric aerosol injection in the Eastern Arctic compared to a moderate emission pathway

Isaline Businger, Rhonda Müller, Raleigh Grysko, Jacqueline Oehri, Jin-Soo Kim, and Gabriela Schaepman-Strub

External preprint server, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.177100420.06303100/v1,https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.177100420.06303100/v1, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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23 Mar 2026

Impacts of land-use and land-cover change on blue–green water partitioning

Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Abhinav Dengri, Nora L. S. Fahrenbach, and Peter Greve

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-513,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-513, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

Short summary

20 Mar 2026

Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics

Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Nicole Gyakowah Otoo, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jarno Verkaik, Daniel Zamrsky, and Marc F. P. Bierkens

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-804, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

Short summary

19 Mar 2026

Acceleration by climate change of global economic inflation

Timothy J. Garrett and Matheus R. Grasselli

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1304, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 7 comments)

Short summary

17 Mar 2026

Ocean and marine heatwaves responses to multiple net-zero worlds

Isaline Bossert, Roland Séférian, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Thibault Guinaldo

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-993, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

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17 Mar 2026

Snowball Earth transitions from Last Glacial Maximum conditions provide an independent upper limit on Earth's climate sensitivity

Martin Renoult, Navjit Sagoo, Johannes Hörner, and Thorsten Mauritsen

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 303–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-303-2026, 2026

Short summary

16 Mar 2026

Emerging global freshwater challenges unveiled through observation-constrained projections

Fei Huo, Yanping Li, and Zhenhua Li

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-291-2026, 2026

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11 Mar 2026

Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments

Walker Raymond Lee, Simone Tilmes, and Ewa M. Bednarz

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1004, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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11 Mar 2026

Decadal predictions of wind, solar and compound power indicators to support the European renewable energy sector

Sara Moreno-Montes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Matías Olmo, Sushovan Ghosh, Verónica Torralba, and Albert Soret

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1205, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

Short summary

05 Mar 2026

An EOF-Based Emulator of Means and Covariances of Monthly Climate Fields

Gosha Geogdzhayev, Andre N. Souza, Glenn R. Flierl, and Raffaele Ferrari

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 235–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-235-2026, 2026

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05 Mar 2026

Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation

Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026, 2026

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04 Mar 2026

Past, present, and future variability of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CMIP6 ensembles

Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, and Quentin Jamet

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 209–233, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-209-2026, 2026

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03 Mar 2026

Assessing Earth system responses in deep mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal

Jörg Schwinger, Leon Merfort, Nico Bauer, Raffaele Bernadello, Momme Butenschön, Timothée Bourgeois, Matthew J. Gidden, Shraddha Gupta, Hanna Lee, Nadine Mengis, Yiannis Moustakis, Helene Muri, Lars Nieradzik, Daniele Peano, Julia Pongratz, Pascal Sauer, Etienne Tourigny, and David Wårlind

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-833, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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27 Feb 2026

Toward robust fine-scale decadal precipitation forecasts through dynamically consistent subsampling

Joanne Couallier, Didier Swingedouw, Charlotte Sakarovitch, and Ramdane Alkama

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-573, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 5 comments)

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27 Feb 2026

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability since 1850 is largely externally forced

Yongyao Liang, Ed Hawkins, Gerard McCarthy, and Peter Thorne

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-699, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)

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26 Feb 2026

Impacts of Simulated Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement on the Seasonal Cycle of the Air-Sea CO₂ Flux and Surface Ocean pCO₂ in European Waters under a Low- and a High-Emission Scenario

Chiara Ciscato, Neha Mehendale, Tronje P. Kemena, Sandy Avrutin, and David P. Keller

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-926, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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24 Feb 2026

Respecting the boundaries: balancing climate adaptation and Earth system resilience

Bastian Ott, Jonathan F. Donges, and Johan Rockström

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-79, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)

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18 Feb 2026

Informing low-order models of climate tipping elements using outputs from higher-complexity Earth system models

Nils Bochow, Jonathan Krönke, Julius Garbe, and Nico Wunderling

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-614, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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11 Feb 2026

An Information-Based World-Earth System Resilience Index

John M. Anderies, Max Bechthold, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Nico Wunderling, Wolfram Barfuss, and Johan Rockström

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6345, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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10 Feb 2026

The Influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on European Summer Climate: Competing Mechanisms and Implications for Prediction

Ned C. Williams, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Joaquim G. Pinto

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6330, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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04 Feb 2026

Extreme events in the Amazon after deforestation

Arim Yoon, Cathy Hohenegger, Jiawei Bao, and Lukas Brunner

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 167–179, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-167-2026, 2026

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03 Feb 2026

| Highlight paper

The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency

Florian Ulrich Jehn, James Mulhall, Simon Blouin, Łukasz G. Gajewski, and Nico Wunderling

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 151–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-151-2026, 2026

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30 Jan 2026

Effect of a Bering Strait Closure on AMOC Resilience in a Climate Box Model

Jelle Soons, Elian Vanderborght, and Henk A. Dijkstra

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6565, 2026

Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)

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30 Jan 2026

The six-year cycle in atmospheric angular momentum: robustness, zonal-wind structure, and implications for Earth rotation

Julia Pfeffer, Anny Cazenave, Rodrigo Abarca-del-Rio, Veronique Dehant, Mioara Mandea, Severine Rosat, and Nicolas Gillet

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-82, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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30 Jan 2026

Setting up the physical principles of resilience in a model of the Earth System

Orfeu Bertolami and Magnus Nyström

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 141–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-141-2026, 2026

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28 Jan 2026

Regional contrasts of ecosystem productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ growth across East Asia

Yun-Soo Na, Sang-Wook Yeh, and Jong-Seong Kug

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-353, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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26 Jan 2026

Benchmarking Conditioners in Liang–Kleeman Information Flow: Application to Land–Atmosphere Interactions

Fareeha Siddique, Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan, Guojie Wang, David Docquier, and Stéphane Vannitsem

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-267, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 4 comments)

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20 Jan 2026

Contributions of supraglacial lakes to the Greenland Ice Sheet melting

Alessandro Cotronei, Ulrike Feudel, and Angelika Humbert

EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6334, 2026

Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)

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16 Jan 2026

A theoretical framework to understand sources of error in Earth System Model emulation

Christopher B. Womack, Glenn Flierl, Shahine Bouabid, Andre N. Souza, Paolo Giani, Sebastian D. Eastham, and Noelle E. Selin

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 107–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-107-2026, 2026

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14 Jan 2026

Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections

Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 81–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026, 2026

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13 Jan 2026

Limited global effect of climate-Greenland ice sheet coupling in NorESM2 under a high-emission scenario

Konstanze Haubner, Heiko Goelzer, and Andreas Born

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 57–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-57-2026, 2026

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07 Jan 2026

Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions

Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G. Donat, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Verónica Torralba, Roberto Bilbao, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Margarida Samsó-Cabré, Albert Soret, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026, 2026

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06 Jan 2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 23–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-23-2026, 2026

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05 Jan 2026

CMIP6 multi-model assessment of Northeast Atlantic and German Bight storm activity

Daniel Krieger and Ralf Weisse

Earth Syst. Dynam., 17, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1-2026, 2026

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