Pinned
usa vs australia is a good example of why world cup markets are not just “pick the winner.”
polymarket has it roughly:
usa 61c
draw 22c
australia 18c
the simple read is “usa are favorites.”
but the more useful read is this:
if you want to fade usa, the market is not really
00:00
world cup already has today’s “safe” market
spain vs cape verde at 91.5c.
everyone knows spain should win, that’s not the edge
the question is whether ~6% upside is enough to sit through 90 minutes of football variance.
one slow start.
one 0-0 at halftime.
one random red
