Matt Crosby ⚡️ (@MattCrosbyPro) / X

Matt Crosby ⚡️

604 posts

Matt Crosby ⚡️

@MattCrosbyPro

🔗 Come say hello at @BTCPrague 🔗 🟠 @BitcoinMagPro | @BitcoinMagazine | @_btcinc 🟠

Dir of Research & Analytics 👉

BitcoinMagazinePro.com

Joined April 2020

Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 8, 2025
Bitcoin has been closely tracking Gold this cycle, with a 40-day lag there's over a 92% correlation! If the pattern holds, BTC could continue to follow Gold’s breakout, pointing toward a move toward ~$150K in early November. Full breakdown in my latest article (link below):
14K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 8, 2025
Everyone once again saying that Bitcoin has topped after a *checks notes* 4% retracement… Excluding the fact almost every metric is pointing higher, I don’t understand the need to constantly bet against an asset that has gone from $0 to $126k. It pays much better to be a bull!
3.2K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Nov 3, 2025
Bitcoin’s volatility is at record lows — the tightest weekly Bollinger Band squeeze ever. In this cycle alone, five similar periods of compression have each ended with major breakouts, often followed by ~65% moves within 100 days. Full breakdown below:
3.4K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 9, 2025
Prediction markets are pricing in a $140k+ Bitcoin before 2026 as the most likely outcome. Would anybody be interested in an analysis piece looking into the historical accuracy of these markets to see if data points like this are worth paying more attention to? Let me know! 👇
3.8K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Nov 12, 2025
Bitcoin’s production cost, the estimated energy expense to mine one BTC, has historically acted as a structural floor for price. Post-halving, that cost doubled to around $70K, and each dip near it this cycle has marked strong local bottoms. Full breakdown below:
3K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 20, 2025
Despite the crash, the data doesn’t suggest the Bitcoin bull market is over. BTC is ~1,060 days into its cycle, similar to past peaks, but today it’s driven more by liquidity than halving cycles. Rate cuts expected in late 2025 likely reignite momentum. Full article below:
2.9K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 13, 2025
We combined macro data, on-chain metrics, network fundamentals & technicals into one model; the Bitcoin Everything Indicator. It maps when BTC is overheated or undervalued across cycles, and it’s working *surprisingly* well. Full breakdown in the free article below:
2.6K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 27, 2025
Prediction Market expectations for BTC price moves are almost perfectly correlated to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. You can pretty much just do the opposite of what traders/bettors are doing and you'll do better than a vast majority! Full article free below 👇
2.3K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 15, 2025
Bitcoin’s volatility and speculative extremes are fading with institutional growth, meaning classic models like the MVRV Z-Score probably need updating. Our 2YR Rolling MVRV Z-Score adapts to these shifts and tracks cycle behavior more accurately. Full breakdown below:
2.7K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Nov 13, 2025
Great discussion here in Amsterdam! 🇳🇱 Shout out to everyone who came in person and tuned in online for the unbelievable reception! 🚀 Thanks to @benjamincowen, @therationalroot & @Andre_Dragosch for a simply lovely discussion! 😎🤝😎 Same time next year @BitcoinConfEUR? 👀
11K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Sep 29, 2025
If MSTR had avoided buying when the MVRV was in its top 20% of overvalued days and deployed capital during cooler periods, they’d be holding nearly 50,000 more BTC. At current prices, that’s over $5.5B in additional Bitcoin! Full breakdown in my article (link below):
1.8K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 6, 2025
Long-Term Holders are taking profits, but the share of BTC they’ve distributed is still below prior cycle peaks when adjusted for their total holdings and the circulating bitcoin supply. In other words, plenty of room to go! Full breakdown in my latest article (link below):
2K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Oct 10, 2025
Re-added at $121,000; invalidation beneath $117,000 and targeting $130k area. Happy to put my money where my mouth is!
1.9K
Matt Crosby ⚡️
@MattCrosbyPro
Sep 28, 2025
Using Metcalfe’s Law to value Bitcoin gives us a current 'fair value' of ~$63k. Valuation bands put overvalued at ~$130k. Historically, BTC has run far above this level with past cycle peaks pointing to $176k–$240k if repeated. Full analysis in my recent article (link below):
2.4K