Metaculus (@metaculus) / X

Metaculus

3,675 posts

Metaculus

@metaculus

Forecasts on critical topics. Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: metaculus.com/labor-hub FutureEval: metaculus.com/futureeval Partner: metaculus.com/services

Santa Cruz, CA

Joined November 2015

Metaculus
@metaculus
3h
1/ Which jobs are most vulnerable to AI automation? The Labor Automation Forecasting Hub now has individual pages for 15 US occupations, including: - Community forecasts at 2027, 2030, and 2035 - Pro Forecaster commentary - 3 distinct AI exposure metrics (Felten, M&A
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Metaculus
@metaculus
3h
Replying to @metaculus
6/ More context about each AI exposure metric: - Felten et al’s AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) measures the overlap between AI capabilities and the abilities an occupation requires, aggregated from O*NET ability data. Higher exposure does not by itself mean a job will be
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Metaculus
@metaculus
3h
7/ See all 15 occupations on the Labor Hub Jobs page:
All Jobs · Labor Automation Forecasting Hub | Metaculus
From metaculus.com
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 16
👀 New @MITAIRisk x @MITFutureTech report: “Prioritization of Risks from Artificial Intelligence: A Delphi Study of 272 International Experts.” A Metaculus question makes an appearance on p. 17 (link to report in replies)
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 16
Full report here: cdn.prod.website-files.com/669550d38372f3…
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 12
1/ What disease prevention technologies are most likely to deliver impact over the next two decades, and what are the factors that will determine timelines and implementation? 🧵
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 12
Replying to @metaculus
6/ Microneedle patch vaccines are closest to delivering real-world impact, with Pros forecasting first approval in June 2032. Manufacturing scale-up is the main hurdle, but unlike the other technologies here, forecasters don't foresee a multi-year commercial delay.
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 12
7/ Find the full report here: metaculus.com/files/Frontier… @coeff_giving works to direct funding to the most impactful global health opportunities. This forecasting project was designed to support their portfolio decisions. Want independent forecasts like this for your org? Check
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 12
𝙳𝚊𝚟𝚒𝚍 𝚁𝚎𝚒𝚗𝚜𝚝𝚎𝚒𝚗
@GivingTools
Jun 12
metaculus.com/tournament/330… Launched the first funded multi-area #animalwelfare #forecasting tournament on @metaculus
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 11
1/ Every year, hundreds of millions of dollars flow into animal advocacy. Which interventions actually work? Which don't? We just launched a forecasting tournament to help find out. 🐄 The Animal Futures Tournament, with a prize pool via @manifund. Questions crowdsourced from
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 11
Replying to @metaculus
3/ The goal: forecasts that feed directly into real decisions. Funders, advocacy orgs, and researchers make big strategic calls with limited data. Calibrated probability estimates from a global forecasting community beat going on vibes.
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Metaculus
@metaculus
Jun 11
4/ You don't have to work in animal welfare to participate. If you do, your expertise makes the forecasts credible. If you're a forecaster looking for sharp, decision-relevant questions, jump in. Open now:
Animal Futures Tournament
From metaculus.com
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